Super Bowl XLIX

I have to start off by saying I'm a huge Tom Brady fan and love that he has made it to another Super Bowl. That is an incredible accomplishment and to me he is the most deserving QB to win this game. Even with the #Deflategate scandal lingering, the Patriots are focused on winning the Super Bowl.

Let's talk the game. If you think this is going to be similar to last year's game, you're wrong. Yes, I know Peyton Manning and the Broncos were unstoppable on offense last year and had a decent defense, but when it came down to pressure, stopping the run, and scoring points, the Broncos were hopeless. This Patriot team has arguably the best corner in the league with Revis, Opposite of Revis is Browner, who is a top corner as well. The Patriots have the defense that they have been missing in their recent playoff runs. After Russell Wilson's 4 interceptions in the NFC Championship against the Packers, his life will get even more difficult when he faces the Patriots dangerous secondary. The thing Russell Wilson accelerates at better than just about every QB in the NFL is his play-making abilities when he gets outside the pocket. He is if not the best scrambling QB. He can tuck and run for a big gain or hit one of his play-makers like Doug Baldwin or Jermaine Kearse.

With all that being said about Russell Wilson, I think the Patriots are going to be able to contain Wilson by doing a few things.They will have Rob Ninkovich and Jamie Collins in a spy position. Ninkovich will do a variety of pass rushing and containment, while I think Collins will do more spying on Wilson and covering Tight Ends and backs. This will seriously limit Russell Wilson if he can't escape the pocket and his wide receivers are being guarded tightly. This leads me to the conclusion the Marshawn "Beastmode" Lynch is the Seahawks' best option for success and he has been all post season. My fear for Seattle is that Belichick knows that Seattle's game plan is to get it to Lynch and Belichick will have a gameplan to take Lynch out of the game, forcing Seattle to be a pass first offense. If the Seahawks are going to score Russell Wilson is going to have to make plays with his arm or else their offense will get stiffed.

Luckily for Seattle they have the best defense in the NFL, which has got them to this point. They have no weak spots on paper. Unfortunately for Seattle, they are facing arguably the best postseason QB in NFL history. Tom Brady is the ONLY QB that will be able to dissect this Seattle defense, but with help from his teammates. In my opinion, the biggest factor in this game will be the battle between the New England offensive line against the Seattle defensive line and the pressure Seattle's defense puts on Brady. Seattle's pressure from their D-line lead by by Michael Bennett, complements their top of the line secondary. Whoever wins the battle at the line of scrimmage, I believe will win the game. A key stat to look for at the end of the game will be the number of times Brady is sacked. 4 sacks is the max the Patriots call allow for Brady to lead them to victory.

One more point I want to hit on before I give my final prediction and that is GRONKOWSKI. "Gronk" is the Patriots best offensive weapon. Although he had a very quiet game against Indianapolis, his presence doesn't go unnoticed. His quiet game was because the Colts' secondary focused so much on him, which allowed the other New England wide receivers to get open and make plays. Amendola and Edelman have been playing well during these playoffs and I expect one of them to have a big game, picking up key 1st downs to keep drives going. The success of the bubble screens and quick routes are going to be key to a successful offensive game plan. Don't think Richard Sherman will let these go, I expect him to try and jump one or two, but that's when Brady will catch him trying to jump a route and hit Brandon LaFell for a big play, possibly a game-changing touchdown. All of the other wide receivers success will be due to the coverage on Gronkowski and how effective LeGarrette Blount can be running the ball. If the Patriots run game does struggle, no problem, that has been an issue all year and hasn't stopped them. Seattle has given up 11 TD's to Tight Ends. Watch for Brady to go over the top of the linebackers to hit Gronk on a seam route for a TD.

My Final Thoughts:
Both teams have great special teams and I expect a few field goals from each team. The difference maker is that the Patriots have always been good, but this year they have the players that will get them over the hump and win the Super Bowl. Seattle's offensive struggles that lead to field goals rather than touchdowns, much like the Packers will be what kills them in this game.

2 TD's from Brady, 1 New England Rushing TD, and 2 Field Goals will be what it takes to beat Seattle.

27-23 New England wins.

MVP: Tom Brady


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NFL Playoffs Championship Round

Seahawks by 8, 28-20 over the Packers. Patriots by 10, 30-20 over the Colts.

Never bet against Tom Brady

NFL Playoffs Divisional Round 2015

AFC Playoffs

Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots
A playoff rematch from 2 seasons ago, where Baltimore went on a magical run to cap off Ray Lewis' career and spoil both the Broncos and Patriots Super Bowl hopes. The game 2 years ago was dominated by the Ravens in the 2nd half, forcing Brady into 2 interceptions and a fumble. You can bet your money that Brady remembers that game and is out for vengeance on Saturday. The Ravens D' did look good in the 2nd half against the Steelers, but I think Tom Brady and the Patriots will be tougher to stop then the Steelers were for the Ravens.
27-22 Patriots go on to the AFC Championship.


Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos
I don't see a good outcome for the Colts this weekend. Their running game is virtually no existent so this will mean they will have to rely on Luck's arm most of the game. I think he will be pressured into some bad throws resulting in at least an interception or two. The Colts defense is playing well, but with an extra week of rest for the Broncos I don't think the Colts are going to be able to stop Manning or the run game with CJ Anderson.
34-20 Broncos go to Foxborough to face the Patriots in the match up we have been waiting for.


NFC Playoffs

Carolina Panthers at Seattle Seahawks
Though the past meeting between these two teams have been low scoring and ended by game winning drives led by Russell Wilson, there are some big differences between those games and this game. 1) the 12th man of the Seattle fans. The previous games were in Carolina. 2) This Seattle team is not the same team as they were in week 8. The Seahawks are playing like the best team in the NFL. They are on a 6 game winning streak and haven't gave up more than 14 points during that streak. I don't the Panthers win against the quarterbackless Cardinals will help them vs Seattle.
27-13 Seattle goes on to the NFC Championship.

Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers
This is the game of the weekend! The Dallas Cowboys perfect road record against the Packers perfect home record, with arguably the MVP, Aaron Rodgers. I've talked to some die-hard Packer fans and even they could see this going either way. As I see it, nobody is going to beat the Packers at home this season. I give Dallas a lot of credit for their come back win, but there is no way Aaron Rodgers allows them to win. If Dallas and Tony Romo play perfect, there may be a chance for a win, but if it comes down to the wire, Rodgers will deliver a game-winning drive.
My prediction 34-23 Packers go to Seattle to face the Seahawks in the NFC Championship



Follow me on Twitter @basketballguy61 and @jpsweets

NFL Playoffs Wild Card preview

My NFL Playoff Wild Card preview

AFC Playoffs:

 Pittsburgh Steelers-Baltimore Ravens:

This one could go either way. If Big Ben comes out guns blazing and can get a few touchdowns on the board the Ravens are going to have a tough  time keeping it close with how their offense has been playing. I think it will be a low scoring, grind it out type of game in a big rivalry game. 20-17 Pittsburgh moves on.

Indianapolis Colts-Cincinnati Bengals

I have lost my confidence in Andrew Luck. His turnovers are getting to costly for this team to advance in the playoffs. The way the Bengals Defense gave Payton Manning trouble, I fear for Luck. That being said, if Luck doesn't turn it over and manages the game by keeping his offense on the field with long drives that keeps his defense off the field and fresh the Colts will be in good shape. On the other side of the ball is the inconsistent Andy Dalton. I don't know if he will show up or choke, but if he doesn't try to do too much and hits his wide receivers for some big plays they will be in a position to win. 

My prediction is that we will have a tie game near the end of 4th quarter, Andrew Luck will deliver another game winning drive setting up the clutch Adam Vinitari for a game winning field goal. 23-20 Colts go on to the next round. 

NFC Playoffs:

Dallas Cowboys-Detroit Lions

The Cowboys are on a roll. Their run game with DeMarco Murray is one of the best in the league and Tony Romo is having an MVP like season. The Cowboys Defense is playing great too. The Lions will have their hands full trying to stop Dez Bryant and Murray. Lucky ily for the Lions, Suh won his appeal and his suspension was upheld. His presence will help, but it won't be enough to stop the Cowboys offense. Even if Stafford and Calvin Johnson connect for over 100 yards and a couple of touchdowns, I see Stafford getting pressured into a turnover or two that will be the difference in this one. 31-20 Cowboys go on. 

Arizona Cardinals-Carolina Panthers

The least interesting game goes to this match up. The Panthers are a sad team this year. Going from one of the best teams last season with a great defense to a team with a struggling Cam Newton and an average defense. I was impressed with their blowout win against the Falcons to clinch the division, but that won't be enough to beat the Cardinals.  The Cardinals QB situation is the only reason this game will be close. My prediction is that the Cardinals keep the Panthers very limited. 20-10 Cardinals go on to the next round

NFL regular season wrap up

NFL regular season wrap up.

As the NFL playoffs begin this weekend, let's recap how the regular season finished up. I will touch base on every team. 

MVP: Aaron Rodgers

Best 2 divisions: NFC West and AFC North

AFC North:

*The Steelers lost to Tampa Bay at home earlier in the season. Yes, the division champs of the toughest division lost to the worst team in the league. The Steelers got it rolling after that loss including Roethlisberger throwing 12 touchdowns in 2 games, including 6 against the Indianapolis Colts who they could face in the AFC Championship if both teams made it that far (highly doubtful). He (Roethlisberger) eventually cooled off and lost to the Jets. when it came down to the final game of the season to win the division sgainst the Bengals, the Steelers and Antonio Brown played like the playoff team they have had potential to be all season long. Both the Ravens and the Browns were top stop stories weekly not always for good reasons. The Ravens and the whole Ray Rice scandal really was not the thing an organization would ever want to deal with, but they handled it the right way by cutting Rice. Throughout the distractions they still found a way to win and make the playoffs. The Browns brought the media to them by drafting Johnny Manziel. Since Day 1 after drafting him, he was a story. Unfortunately for him and fortunately for the Browns, Brian Hoyer and the rest of the team were doing just fine without him. Eventually Hoyer started struggling down the stretch and losing games giving Manziel a chance to start. Like I predicted, he stunk it up and that was the last of him for the season. Maybe this summer he will be more dedicated to being a starting QB. The Bengals started out like they were going to emerge to the top of the AFC North starting out 6-1. Like the Arizona Cardinals, the Bengals had their mid season woes and lost a few games, fighting for their playoff lives during the end of the season. To Cincinnati's credit, the Monday Night Football game against the Broncos was their coming of age game that solidified them as a playoff team, picking off Manning 4 times to keep their playoff hopes alive and have a chance to take the division against Pittsburgh the following week. Though the Bengals lost to Pittsburgh for the division championship, they have made it to the playoffs for 4 straight years.

NFC West:

The reason I say this was the toughest division because even the Rams were one of the best defenses in the league. The Rams also beat the Seahawks and 49ers this season. Without Sam Bradford they were still able to be competitive in the league with the emergence of Trey Mason, look for them to make a playoff push next season in the toughest division in the NFL. I think the biggest surprise was the success of the Arizona Cardinals. If you were really to study them though, you would know that their defensive success was no joke. Since the end of last season, they've been one of the best defensive teams and were beginning to click on offense. I predicted earlier this season that I didn't think they would be able to fend off the 49ers and Seahawks, but to their credit they did make the playoffs using their 4th string QB because of Carson Palmer going down earlier in the season. The 49ers and Jim Harbaugh saga turned ugly quick. At 7-4 I thought that if they would have beat the Seahawks they would be where the Seahawks are, but they lost and now don't have a head coach. Kaepernick didn't have a great season either, but hopefully he'll mature and be the stud he is.

NFC North:

If anybody really thought the Packers weren't going to win the division you all need to "relax" and pay more attention to the NFL. In my opinion Aaron Rodgers is the MVP, besides the off game in Buffalo he's been pretty much flawless. I believe the Packers will go to the Super Bowl as long as they can beat the Seahawks and now that they have home field advantage their chances have only increased. 

The Lions had a great season as well, with one of the best front fours and high powered duo with Stafford and Calvin Johnson. The Buffalo loss at home really was the difference between them playing this weekend and winning the division, but I guess you could say that for the Packers as well.

The Vikings may have  had a losing record, but there were many good takeaways from this season. I think the biggest was that Teddy Bridgewater is the real  deal and the Vikings got a steal in the draft. Anthony Barr, their first pick was incredible as well. The Vikings will need to fix their offensive line this off season if they want to compete for the division championship. 

The Bears were a tragedy to watch unfold this season. The sad thing is that they started off very well beating the 49ers early and New York Jets back to back road games across the country. After that came the back to back give up 50 points to Packers and Patriots games where the season really went down hill. Then the Jay Cutler saga got worse and now the Bears are in a state of turmoil. Good luck Chicago with the next head coach you find. The problem isn't the coach, it's Cutler.

NFC East:

The NFC East was a great battle between 2 teams, one team winning the division and the other having a good record, but kicked out of the playoffs because of losing record NFC South champion. Dallas actually lived up to its full potential, dominating the end of the season and the road. I don't want to speak to quick on their success because they will have to prove to critics they are the real deal by beating the Detroit Lions, which they should. The Eagles are the big losers of the division. They have a playoff record but don't make the playoffs. The turning point was losing to Seahawks after losing Nick Foles for the season. The Eagles will be one of the best teams in the NFL again next season, but this post season they will be watching from their couches. 

The Redskins organization is such a mess. If I were RG3 I wouldn't want to play there either and he won't be next season. Coach Gruden might want to watch some of his brother's show and learn how to handle his QB and not throw him under the bus when things aren't going well. 

The NY Giants had a miserable season of their own, including a forgettable loss to the Jaguars and one to the Cowboys when they were up at half. I guess you could say the only highlight the Giants will want to remember from the season is the miraculous one handed grab by Odell-Beckham that could be the play of the season. 

AFC West: 

The AFC West was the second toughest division in the AFC.  Kansas City Chiefs had a good season this year, but fell just short of making the playoffs. Much like the Eagles they were worthy of the playoffs, but after the Raiders loss things went south. I think going the whole season without a WR catching a TD was a underlining problem with the KC offense. Besides the Raiders the other 3 teams were all in the run for the playoffs, only the Broncos made it. The Broncos got off to a hot start after their embarrassing Super Bowl loss looking to get back there this season, but somewhere along the season Payton's passing game seemed off and people began to wonder if he was losing it. His 4 INT game vs the Bengals really was a shocking game, but He eventually calmed those fears down and got back on track to be ready for the playoffs with a win against Oakland. I have to give credit to the Chargers for a good season, but yet again they fell short of a playoff birth after a good start to the season. 

NFC South:

Nobody wanted to win this division, but somebody had to. The Carolina Panthers won the division, but I can't say they are going to go far in the playoffs. Cam Newton seemed a little off, but I believe he will bounce back and have a pro bowl like season next year. I don't know what happened to the Saints this season. They couldn't win at home where they are usually dominate, but they somehow beat the Seahawks. The Falcons were just as questionable as the Saints, with a veteran QB having more turnovers than usual and unable to close games. 

2 highlights for the Bucs: they beat the Steelers and they have the #1 pick in the draft. Hello Marcus Mariota.

AFC South:

The Colts will own this division for as long as the Texans don't have a QB. My advice to Houston is to draft a QB and get more use out of him than they did with their #1 pick Clowney. JJ Watt was unbelievable and may be the MVP with the type of season he had even though his team didn't make the playoffs, he did everything he could to help them win. Andrew Luck had another good year, but his turnovers have to cutdown. I think he is just like Manning was in his younger days with the Colts and will have a MVP season soon.

As for the Jags and Titans, they each have one positive note from the season: The Jags found their future QB with Bortles (so we think) and the Titans have #2 pick in the draft.

AFC East:

Again the Patriots won the division and clinched Home field advantage for the playoffs, nothing new here. I think they are Super Bowl ready this season because they finally have a defense that can stop the run and pass. I was very impressed with the Bills and Dolphins. The Bills swept the NFC North, which is no easy task. It's a shame their coach is leaving after they have made so much progression in the last two seasons. The Dolphins had a good season as well just coming short of making the playoffs. Ryan Tannehill is getting better and better each season. I wouldn't be surprised if he leads the dolphins to the playoffs next season.

The Jets  had a forgettable season and will be in a rebuilding stage next season with the firing of Rex Ryan. Geno Smith seemed like he regressed allowing Vick to get some play time.