NBA Finals - Cleveland Cavaliers vs Golden State Warriors Game 6

NBA Finals - Cleveland Cavaliers vs Golden State Warriors Game 6

Could tonight be the last night of the NBA season or will LeBron and the Cavs stay alive? Either or, tonight will hopefully be as entertaining of game as Game 5 was. The Cavaliers played with a sense of urgency that had been missing all series. I guess when your season is on the line, there might be a little more fire in one's chest. The Cavs should have that same drive tonight, but using that kind of effort in Game 5 could have some fatigue effects in Game 6.

As I noted in my original NBA Finals preview, Kyrie Irving's rise in level of play will be a huge factor for the Cavs' success, he is truly showing he is a premier PG in the NBA and giving Steph Curry a run for his money. Kyrie's performance in Game 5 is exactly what they needed in that game. Now, I'm not saying he's going to score 40+ again, but if he can just have a slightly above average game, say maybe score 25 or more, while LeBron has near 30, the Cavs' chances of winning grow exponentially. Which brings me to my next topic...Kevin Love.

Kevin Love had a miserable offensive night in Game 5 scoring only 2 points in 33 minutes. He was nearly a non-factor, but he was second on the team, only to Kyrie in +/- of +18. This is why I don't always like the +/- stat. It's deceiving sometimes. In Game 6, Kevin Love should and needs to have a better game. The fact that the game is in Cleveland should boost his confidence somewhat. If he can step up in a way Kyrie did last game, the Cavs will win this game.

The Return of Draymond Green; this has to be the biggest story line of the night. Green and Warrior "fans" claiming they would have won if he'd played. It's all gibberish talk. With the game Kyrie and LeBron had, the Cavs weren't going to lose even if Green had played. Yes, Draymond will have an immediate impact on the game, but his presence alone is not going to be the reason why the Warriors win or lose. The Warriors lost because of their lack of defense and poor bench performance. I could see Speights getting some more playtime tonight due to Andrew Bogut being out and his offensive attributes. A few other things I want to mention with the return of Green and Andrew Bogut being out. This will totally switch up their rotation. The Warriors "DEATH" line-up will be playing even more minutes than usual tonight, due to Bogut being out.

Klay Thompson and Steph Curry

Thompson had an outstanding offensive night, almost as well as Kyrie Irving, but if you look in the box score, he had the worst +/- posting a -21. That is a direct correlation in his defensive ability. I get so frustrated when I hear somebody call him "an elite defender." You don't just go from horrible one on one defender to elite defender in 1 season. Some may think I'm totally wrong about Klay, but I will wait to hear and better yet see a counter argument. As for Steph Curry, once again he looked average having a below par shooting night, after having his huge 38 point game in Game 4, he was over-shadowed by Kyrie's 41 points in Game 5. He has only played like the MVP once in this series. I think he will have another average night again tonight and wait to explode for Game 7.

Cavs win tonight and keep the series alive because LeBron will have another near triple double, Kyrie will have an average game, Kevin Love, JR Smith and the bench will be the difference. My special stat to watch is the number of 3's JR Smith makes. 5 or more and the Cavs win. For the Warriors, I think Klay will have a bad game, Steph will start hot and cool off, and my X factor for the Warriors tonight is Iggy and Livingston. Both need bounce back games. Cavs still win in a very tight game.

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NBA Finals 2016 - Cleveland Cavaliers at Golden State Warriors - Game 5

NBA Finals - Cleveland Cavaliers vs Golden State Warriors Game 5

Game 4 was the most competitive, down to the last minute game so far in the series, 11 points was the margin of victory for the Warriors, but it was by far the most compelling game to watch thus far. The Cavs had so many missed defensive assignments that were compounded by Steph Curry finally showing up and having a memorable performance, finishing with 38 points. Curry played like the MVP, while his counterpart Klay Thompson came to play as well finishing with 25 points.

As for the Cavs, LeBron had a near triple-double finishing with 25 points, 13 rebounds, and 9 assists, but those 25 points and near triple-double are misleading in my opinion. He did have 11 points in the 4th quarter, but 6 of the points were scored on nearly uncontested layups with under a minute left, otherwise known as "padding one's stats," while the Cavs were exchanging layups for near automatic free-throws by Curry and Thompson. On top of his misleading stat-line, LeBron had 7 TO because of careless passes and his reluctant aggressiveness. Kyrie Irving had a big game, scoring 34 points, but that was overshadowed by Curry's 38. So besides James and Irving, the Cavs were pretty flat offensively, especially in the second half.

What's next? Game 5 in Oakland at Oracle Arena on Monday night. Will the Warriors close out the series and become back to back NBA Champions or will the Cavs stay on life support for another game? My gut says it's over on Monday, but the LeBron die hard in me hopes for the latter. I guess all we can do is watch. I hope the LeBron of Game 5 vs Detroit in 2007 comes out to play, but who knows.

Now with the suspension of Draymond Green, I believe Cleveland's chances of winning improve dramatically, mostly because of Green's versatility and his ability to defend LeBron. Yes, Iguodala is very capable of guarding LeBron and fulfilling Green's spot, but his absence will not only affect Golden State's substitutions, but their defensive capabilities. I expect this game to be a lot closer now that Green is out and maybe LeBron explodes for a huge game.

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NBA Finals 2016 - Cleveland Cavaliers at Golden State Warriors - Game 2

NBA Finals - Cleveland Cavaliers vs Golden State Warriors Game 2

Game 1 was not quite what everyone was expecting. Lebron was Lebron, but the other showcased stars of the match-up were not themselves, including the MVP Steph Curry. 11 points for Curry was not quite the Curry we're used to, but he was the reason for many wide open layups/dunks that his teammates were the recipients of, most noticeably that Draymond Green dunk when Lebron and Shumpert messed up and doubled Curry instead of switching. So yes, he had a pretty awful offensive game, but his presence was felt and effected the game. Curry and Thompson's struggles did seem to spark the Golden State bench to compensate for their struggles by outscoring the Cleveland bench 45-10. Shaun Livingston stole the show and as of now is the leading candidate for Finals MVP. Now it it's pretty improbable that he will have another performance like that, but he will most definitely play a huge role in the series, especially when Curry is resting.

As for Cleveland, their bench was invisible and downright horrible. Curry's kryptonite last year, Matthew Dellavedova, was awful and looked scared. He posted a team worst +/- of -19 and didn't help the Cavs at all. I expect him to have a better series after getting those Game 1 jitters out. A lot of people are asking "what happened to JR Smith?" He did have an awful offensive game, but that may have correlation to his outstanding defense on Klay Thompson. It will only be a matter of time before he goes off for 5+ 3's in a game. One last note: When James went out with 34.1 seconds left in the 3rd quarter, Cleveland trailed 71-68. When he returned 2:23 into the 4th, the Cavs trailed 84-70.

My Game 2 Prediction

This is a must win game for Cleveland. Going down 2-0 will be nearly impossible to comeback from. I think Cleveland's bench will out play Golden State's or at least be near even. Yes, I do think one of the Splash Brothers will have a big bounce back game, my guess is Steph, but Kyrie and K-Love will also have much better games, leading to the X-Factor of JR Smith and Cleveland's bench against Golden State's role players and bench. Besides those factors, LeBron is undefeated since 2009 in Game 2 after a Game 1 loss. So if history repeats itself, which I think it will, Cleveland will be heading home with the series tied 1-1 like I thought it would be.

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NBA Finals 2016 - Cleveland Cavaliers vs Golden State Warriors

NBA Finals - Cleveland Cavaliers vs Golden State Warriors Rematch

It's Christmas in June for NBA fans around the world. Tonight kicks off the final playoff series of the NBA season and will end with the crowning of a champion. Review last year's prediction and results made this year's prediction seem clearer. Before I begin my breakdown, I want to comment on each team's path to the NBA Finals. 

Cleveland had a much shorter path, but they were still tested (See John Schuhmann tweet). From the outside, it does seem like the Cavs had a cakewalk to the Finals due to the Eastern Conference being perceived as weak, but I would beg to differ and say the East was much better than it was last year and the #8 seed was six games above .500 unlike the Western Conference, where the #8 seed was .500.

As for Golden State, earning the #1 seed by owning the best regular season record in NBA History is pretty cool to witness. To say the least, they had an amazing season, even though my Timberpups beat them in Golden State. *Proud T-Wolves fan* Besides those 9 losses, Steph Curry was even better than he was last year, which is pretty crazy to think about, considering he broke the 3 point record last year that was held by nobody else besides himself. So he broke his own record, last year to break his old record this year, not by a little, but by 116 more made 3's or 348 more points to his points scored. That's an extra 4.41 additional PPG by 3's. Get the picture. His unanimous MVP voting results really seems as obvious as the outcome. As for the playoffs, the Warriors have gone through a bit of adversity. Losing Steph for a few games in rounds 1 and 2, to being down 3-1 against an OKC team that just knocked off arguably the best Spurs team ever. Their run has been something special.

Now to my analysis of how the series will play out. The Cavs have played 14 games to the Warriors 17. Steph has been injured and missed some games, while the Cavs roster looks very healthy. Cleveland swept 2 series and got ample rest. Golden State just finished a brutal 7 game series. Just these few statements makes it clear that the Cavs are in good position to win the series. Here are my reasons to why the Cavs will be crowned champs.

1) Last year was like everyone on the team meeting each other for the first time. It takes time to gel and play at max potential. With one full year of playing together and most importantly every player healthy, the Cavs are in much better position to win than they were compared to last year's NBA Finals.

2) Statistically, the Cavs are #2 to the Golden State in PPG this Post-season, while they lead the post-season in point differential. They are #1 in 3PM while GS is #2. GS has a slight edge in rebounding and APG, but the Cavs are giving up 10 points less than the Warriors. Read this if you like in-depth stats NBA Finals Statistical Preview.

3) I talked about health and team chemistry in reason 1, but to add to that, I think Kyrie has taken a huge step in these playoffs. His offensive dominance has taken a load off a LeBron's shoulders and allowed their whole team to succeed. His NBA Finals debut got shut down early last time because of injury, so I expect him to have extra motivation and show he can stick with Curry.

4) LeBron James: do I need to say more? 6 straight finals. That's ridiculous and unprecedented besides the Boston Celtics. Here is a graphic of his performance last year, those are video game numbers. Though he won't have near those numbers, he will have teammates to help him.

Now, do I think Golden State can win? Of course. There are plenty of reasons to why they can, could, and should win, but I think the Cavs are ready for them.

Game by game prediction:

Game 1: Cleveland

Game 2: Golden State

Game 3: Cleveland

Game 4: Golden State

Game 5: Cleveland

Game 6: Cleveland

Cavs in 6. Lebron gets ring #3 and Finals MVP.

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