NBA Finals - Cleveland Cavaliers vs Golden State Warriors Volume 3
I didn’t want to write anything for the NBA Finals because I
just wanted to enjoy the series as it unfolds, but as the days before Game 1
passed, I was itching to explain how I think the series will go. As we near
tip-off of Game 1, more and more thoughts and snippets of why each team should
win come to mind.
The Warriors
Kevin Durant is the best player on the Warriors and the main
reason they returned to the Finals. I’m not saying the Warriors wouldn’t have
made it if he’d still be in OKC or if Kawhi hadn’t been injured, but he was the
difference maker of why they dominated through the first 3 rounds of playoffs.
KD wants a ring and that’s why he signed with Golden State. This is the whole
reason KD came to Golden State, not winning, in my mind would be a total
failure. I know some people with counter with, but LeBron didn’t win in his
first year in Miami with his “super” team. True, but the 2009-2010 Heat team
that LeBron was coming to finished 47-35, 5th seed, and lost to the
Celtics 4-1 in the first round of the playoffs, not arguably the greatest
regular season, NBA record setting 73 wins, that was up 3-1 in the Finals, with
the back to back, 2016 unanimous MVP team. LeBron also played horrible and uncharacteristically
in the 2011 Finals. So for KD and the Warriors to lose would be pretty shocking
and inexcusable for them. To wrap up my
Kevin Durant segment, there is no reason he should lose and in my opinion, the
2nd best player in the world should never “ring chase” by joining
one of the greatest teams in my generation. If he wins, he’ll have a ring, but
in no way climbs the ladder of greatest player’s rankings.
As for Steph Curry and the rest of Warriors team, nobody
likes losing twice in a row, so Steph and the 2016 team has that as one of
their main motivations. We’ve seen it countless times where a team loses the
year before and then comes back with vengeance to hoist the trophy. LeBron and
co. did it last year to the Warriors. Lakers did it to Celtics in 2010. Spurs
did it to the Heat in 2014. It’s very, very difficult to repeat in any sport. A
lot of people still think that if Draymond Green hadn’t been suspended, the
Warriors would have won the next game and been crowned. I’m sure he is
extremely sour still. I think last year’s finals loss hurts Steph Curry more
than any of the players on the team because, last year was all about him. The
MVP, the most 3’s, the record setting wins, the shoes, etc. but out of all the
players on team that were supposed to play their best, Steph did not. In fact,
Kyrie Irving outplayed him (Curry) and cemented Irving’s victory between the
two with his (Irving’s) game winning shot while being guarded by Curry. It
really was like a heroic Hollywood blockbuster. We’ll see if Curry and co. come
out looking for blood in Game 1 or if the Cavs can slow down the juggernaut.
The Cavs
Obviously every game is important, but Game 1 is the most overrated
game in any series. Game 1 will be won by the Warriors. The Warriors will have
all the hype and the crowd and whatever, but Game 2 will be the real test. LeBron
has won one game 1 in his NBA Finals career and that was against the Dallas
Mavericks, who LeBron eventually loss to. So if history repeats itself, the
Warriors will win and I’m ok with that. When game 2 starts, all bets are off.
Unlike last year when Cleveland started down 0-2, this year they will steal a
game on the road. My thought is that KD will have a great game 1 and people
will think the series is over, KD and the Warriors are looking ready to roll,
but that’s when Cleveland strikes back and steals game 2. Then we will have a
series.
Bench and Role Players
Last night I was watching The Jump’s NBA Finals Preview and
either Paul Pierce or Scottie Pippen said that the Cavs didn’t improve their
bench. That’s insulting. They picked up Kyle Korver, who has struggled as of
late, but everyone knows he is one of the deadliest 3 point shooters in the
NBA. They upgraded from Matthew Dellavedova with Deron Williams, who has proved
through these playoffs that he can still play quality minutes, when Kyrie needs
a rest. Not only are these bench upgrades valuable, Tristan Thompson is a full
time starter and key player instead of a below average center in Timofey
Mozgov. Channing Frye played only 29 minutes in the Boston series, but I would
expect him to play some valuable minutes, spacing the court with his deadly 3
point range in this series. Frye has shot 30/55 on FGs, 69% of those shots
being 3’s, making 20/38 for 52.6 %. I’m not exactly sure why he didn’t play
much against Boston, but I’m sure coach Lue will find time for him in this
series. JR Smith is one of my dark horses in this series. He has been unusually
quiet in these playoffs and since he has returned from his knee injury that he
suffered earlier this season. I think we’re all waiting for him to have one his
games where explodes from 3. Although he’s been relatively quiet, his net
rating for this season’s playoffs is a crazy 19.1 and his +/- is better than
last year’s +/-. So although no offensive explosions, his value on the court
has been recognized.
Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving
In year 3 since LeBron has returned, the "Big 3" is gelling better than they ever have before. After nearly disappearing in last year's playoffs and finals, Kevin Love is back on top of his game. Just 3 years ago he was arguably the top PF in the NBA. The last 2 years he did struggle fitting into the Cavs, but he's back to his peak form. Kevin Love will have a breakout game during these finals to seal at least 1 victory for the Cavs.
Kyrie has had a quiet playoffs for Kyrie. He seemed to find his shot during the Boston series and get back into that "Uncle Drew" mode. He's healthy and better than he was a year ago, so I foresee him have a couple of 30 point performances to take the load off of LeBron. If Kyrie can outplay Steph Curry once, he can do it again.
In year 3 since LeBron has returned, the "Big 3" is gelling better than they ever have before. After nearly disappearing in last year's playoffs and finals, Kevin Love is back on top of his game. Just 3 years ago he was arguably the top PF in the NBA. The last 2 years he did struggle fitting into the Cavs, but he's back to his peak form. Kevin Love will have a breakout game during these finals to seal at least 1 victory for the Cavs.
Kyrie has had a quiet playoffs for Kyrie. He seemed to find his shot during the Boston series and get back into that "Uncle Drew" mode. He's healthy and better than he was a year ago, so I foresee him have a couple of 30 point performances to take the load off of LeBron. If Kyrie can outplay Steph Curry once, he can do it again.
LeBron
Where do I even begin. 7 straight Finals. 7 straight Finals. In a few years, we're going to say 10 straight finals and be bored with it. So let me get this straight, the best player in the world, is
playing the best basketball of his career and people are doubting him and
picking the opponent in 5 games??? (Insert Nick Young meme). Did people not
watch the last 2 NBA Finals? We thought LeBron was Superman in the last two
finals and now he is playing better than that. The only other thing to compare
him to now is the ultimate player, Michael Jordan. I’ve watched LeBron for
years and when I watched him toy with defenders this post season, he looked
like MJ, when MJ used to make defenders look silly. 11/13 games he has scored
30 or more, last season’s playoffs, he didn’t score 30 until game 6 of the
Toronto series in the ECF. LeBron has learned how to control the game and not in a one-on-on isolation from the left wing way. (See 2015 Finals). He's doing it with his passing and efficiency. His 3 point shooting is at a career best, where teams aren't allowed to go under screens on PnRs, forcing James to shoot. He has proved this post-season that he will destroy teams if they dare him to shoot from deep, connecting at 42%. I'll take LeBron James playing at his best over any team and like Tom Brady, I will never bet against LeBron.
*side note: Mike Brown being the coach might have a bigger impact than we can determine.
Game by game prediction:
Game 1: Golden State
Game 2: Cleveland
Game 3: Cleveland
Game 4: Golden State
Game 5: Golden State
Game 6: Cleveland
Game 7: Cleveland
Game 7: Cleveland
Cavs in 7. Lebron gets ring #4 and Finals MVP.
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