NBA First Month Thoughts

About a month of the NBA season has already gone by. The typical powerhouses are around the top of the league, with a few surprises. I am going to touch on a few that I like or didn't see coming.

LA Clippers: The LA Clippers have the best record in the NBA as of right now at 10:00 AM on 11/18/2016. Now that's really not a big deal, being that it's so early in the season, but maybe we are seeing the Clippers finally putting the pieces together to make it to the WCF. I bet is that they'll slip on and choke in the playoffs as they normally do. I would love to see them knock of the Spurs or Warriors, but I won't give them the benefit of the doubt until they do.

Golden State Warriors: After their embarrassing loss to the Spurs on opening night, the Warriors are right where they left off last season, dominating. They are currently on a 5 game winning streak and play the Boston Celtics tonight, the team that ended their 54-game regular season home winning streak. That was last year, but don't think the Warriors core hasn't forgot about that loss. I think it will be a close one tonight in Boston.

One thing I wanted to touch on was the drop in PPG by Klay Thompson. Everybody knew that with the signing of KD, somebody would be losing some touches/shots per game. I think it's most noticeably Klay Thompson. Yes, it's early in the season, but he is currently averaging 18.5. Last year he averaged 22.1. I had a discussion with my basketball minded friend Erik Sandberg (@Esands6) regarding what possibilities GS could do with Klay and KD. One scenario was to sign KD long term and trade Klay Thompson for some solid defenders and role player that would make an immediate impact. I don't think that is too improbable, but probably won't happen.

James Harden moving to point guard might be the best move a coach has ever made for his usage. He already has 3 triple-doubles this season. Although his defense hasn't seemed to improve, his offensive play and mindset has the Rockets poised to return to the playoffs after missing them last year.

LA Lakers: Similar to the Clippers, but in a different position, both are starting off really well and are surprising everyone with their success thus far. Like the Clippers, they will have to prove they are legit before anybody even considers them a threat, but as of now, they look like they could be on the edge of a #8 seed. I personally don't think they can sustain this success and make the playoffs, but I love how the young players like Russell and Julius Randle are playing.

As for the East:

The Cavs look like they will be the #1 seed at the end of the year. The Hawks seem like they built the perfect nest for Dwight Howard to flourish. They are currently tied for the best record in the East. The Hornets have to be the biggest surprise with their early success. Kemba is really becoming a superstar that can control the game. I hope they continue to win and be a top 5 seed in the playoffs. The "super-team" Knicks are a laughing stock right now. It seems KP is coming around and starting to score more. The Celtics' struggles are disappointing. Obviously it's early, but I for sure thought they would end up as Top 4 seed. Lastly, DeMar DeRozan is on Jordan like scoring terror.

Those are just some of my thoughts at this point in the season. I'm always up for discussion. Tweet me @jpsweets and @basketballguy61 and make sure to like my Facebook page Basketball Guy JP.

NBA Friday Night on ESPN 10/28/2016

NBA Friday Night on ESPN

This Friday night, ESPN will be broadcasting 2 very intriguing games between 4 very exciting teams. First, the Cavs head to Toronto to have a rematch of last year's ECF. This will be the better of the two games in my opinion. Both teams had strong opening night performance, which is why I think this game is going to come down to the wire. The Raptors are looking for revenge from last season and the Cavs look like they are still in championship mode. I'll take the Cavs in a close battle tonight.

The 2nd match-up in the double-header is between the Golden State Warriors and the New Orleans Pelicans. The Warriors are coming off one of the most embarrassing opening night losses that I can remember, compounded by Kevin Durant's season debut. On the other side, we were blessed with the return of a healthy, improved, and dominant Anthony Davis, who put up 50, points, 16 rebounds, 7 steals, 5 assists, and 4 blocks, but some how the Pelicans lost the game to the Denver Nuggets. My prediction is that AD will have another big game. Probably not 50 again, but I'm thinking a double-double finishing with 30+ and 12 rebounds. The real pressure will be on the Warriors to bounce back and I believe they will. I expect Curry, Thompson, and Durant to all hit over 20 points, with one of them going for close to 40. The real difference will be their defense. I see this game turning into a blowout, Warriors win by 15+.

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2016-17 NBA Season Predictions

PLAYOFF PREDICTION

Regular Season MVP: Kawhi Leonard

Western Conference Playoffs

1. Golden State Warriors

2. San Antonio Spurs

3. Los Angeles Clippers

4. Portland Trail Blazers

5. Oklahoma City Thunder

6. Dallas Mavericks

7. Utah Jazz

8. Memphis Grizzlies

Eastern Conference Playoffs
1. Cleveland Cavaliers
2. Toronto Raptors
3. Boston Celtics
4. Indiana Pacers
5. Detroit Pistons
6. Washington Wizards
7. Chicago Bulls
8. Atlanta Hawks

Western Conference Playoffs Round 2
Golden State Warriors vs Portland Trail Blazers: GS wins 4-1
San Antonio Spurs vs Los Angeles Clippers: SA Wins 4-2

Eastern Conference Playoffs Round 2
Cleveland Cavaliers vs Indiana Pacers: CLE wins 4-2
Toronto Raptors vs  Boston Celtics: BOS wins 4-3

Western Conference Finals
Golden State Warriors vs San Antonio Spurs: SA wins 4-3

Eastern Conference Finals

Cleveland Cavaliers vs Boston Celtics: CLE wins 4-2

NBA Finals

Cleveland Cavaliers vs San Antonio Spurs: CLE wins 4-3

Cleveland Cavaliers repeat as NBA Champions 

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NFL Week 2 Predictions

NFL Week 2 Predictions

Away Team	Home Team	My Pick
New York Jets	Buffalo Bills	Bills
Baltimore Ravens	Cleveland Browns	Ravens
Cincinnati Bengals	Pittsburgh Steelers	Steelers
Dallas Cowboys	Washington Redskins	Redskins
Kansas City Chiefs	Houston Texans	Chiefs
Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	Pats
New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Giants
San Francisco 49ers	Carolina Panthers	Panthers
Tennessee Titans	Detroit Lions	Lions
Seattle Seahawks	Los Angeles Rams	Seahawks
Tampa Bay Bucs	Arizona Cardinals	Cardinals
Atlanta Falcons	Oakland Raiders	Raiders
Indianapolis Colts	Denver Broncos	Broncos
Jacksonville Jaguars	San Diego Chargers	Chargers
Green Bay Packers	Minnesota Vikings	Packers
Philadelphia Eagles	Chicago Bears	Bears

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings

By far the best game of the week is Sunday Night Football's match-up between the Vikings and Packers. Last year, Green Bay absolutely crushed the Vikings, even with all the momentum the Vikings had. This year's Vikings team is better than last, but now they have the handicap of missing their starting QB, Teddy Bridgewater. Meanwhile, Green Bay looks full strength, including the return of Jordy Nelson and a healthy Aaron Rodgers. Of course my heart wants the Vikings to win and there would't be too many things sweeter than beating your arch rival in the inaugural regular season home opener at US Bank Stadium, but I'm a realist and think Green Bay will spoil Minnesota's night. The adrenaline and crowd will be able to keep the Vikings in for most of the game, but Rodgers and the Packers will seal the deal. Packers spoil the night 24-17.

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2016-2017 NFL SEASON PREDICTIONS

2016-2017 NFL SEASON PREDICTIONS

MVP

Aaron Rodgers

NFC Playoffs

1. Seattle Seahawks

2. Green Bay Packers

3. Carolina Panthers

4. New York Giants

5. Arizona Cardinals

6. Minnesota Vikings

AFC Playoffs

1. New England Patriots

2. Pittsburgh Steelers

3. Indianapolis Colts

4. Kansas City Chiefs

5. Cincinnati Bengals

6. Houston Texans

Wild Card Playoff

Carolina Panthers vs Minnesota Vikings

New York Giants vs Arizona Cardinals

Cincinnati Bengals vs Kansas City Chiefs

Indianapolis Colts vs Houston Texans

Divisional Round

NFC

#1. Seattle Seahawks vs #5. Arizona Cardinals

#2. Green Bay Packers vs #3. Carolina Panthers

AFC

#1. New England Patriots vs #5. Cincinnati Bengals

#2. Pittsburgh Steelers vs #3. Indianapolis Colts

NFC Championship

Seattle Seahawks vs Green Bay Packers

AFC Championship

New England Patriots vs Pittsburgh Steelers 

SUPER BOWL

New England Patriots vs Green Bay Packers

SUPER BOWL CHAMPIONS

New England Patriots

My Week 1 Predictions

Week	Away Team	Home Team	My Pick
1	Carolina Panthers	Denver Broncos	Panthers
	Buffalo Bills	Baltimore Ravens	Ravens
	Chicago Bears	Houston Texans	Texans
	Cincinnati Bengals	New York Jets	Jets
	Cleveland Browns	Philadelphia Eagles	Eagles
	Green Bay Packers	Jacksonville Jaguars	Packers
	Minnesota Vikings	Tennessee Titans	Vikings
	Oakland Raiders	New Orleans Saints	Saints
	San Diego Chargers	Kansas City Chiefs	Chiefs
	Tampa Bay	Atlanta Falcons	Falcons
	Miami Dolphins	Seattle Seahawks	Seahawks
	Detroit Lions	Indianapolis Colts	Colts
	New York Giants	Dallas Cowboys	Giants
	New England	Arizona Cardinals	Cardinals
	Pittsburgh Steelers	Washington Redskins	Steelers
	Los Angeles Rams	San Francisco 49ers	49ers

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NBA Finals - Cleveland Cavaliers vs Golden State Warriors Game 6

NBA Finals - Cleveland Cavaliers vs Golden State Warriors Game 6

Could tonight be the last night of the NBA season or will LeBron and the Cavs stay alive? Either or, tonight will hopefully be as entertaining of game as Game 5 was. The Cavaliers played with a sense of urgency that had been missing all series. I guess when your season is on the line, there might be a little more fire in one's chest. The Cavs should have that same drive tonight, but using that kind of effort in Game 5 could have some fatigue effects in Game 6.

As I noted in my original NBA Finals preview, Kyrie Irving's rise in level of play will be a huge factor for the Cavs' success, he is truly showing he is a premier PG in the NBA and giving Steph Curry a run for his money. Kyrie's performance in Game 5 is exactly what they needed in that game. Now, I'm not saying he's going to score 40+ again, but if he can just have a slightly above average game, say maybe score 25 or more, while LeBron has near 30, the Cavs' chances of winning grow exponentially. Which brings me to my next topic...Kevin Love.

Kevin Love had a miserable offensive night in Game 5 scoring only 2 points in 33 minutes. He was nearly a non-factor, but he was second on the team, only to Kyrie in +/- of +18. This is why I don't always like the +/- stat. It's deceiving sometimes. In Game 6, Kevin Love should and needs to have a better game. The fact that the game is in Cleveland should boost his confidence somewhat. If he can step up in a way Kyrie did last game, the Cavs will win this game.

The Return of Draymond Green; this has to be the biggest story line of the night. Green and Warrior "fans" claiming they would have won if he'd played. It's all gibberish talk. With the game Kyrie and LeBron had, the Cavs weren't going to lose even if Green had played. Yes, Draymond will have an immediate impact on the game, but his presence alone is not going to be the reason why the Warriors win or lose. The Warriors lost because of their lack of defense and poor bench performance. I could see Speights getting some more playtime tonight due to Andrew Bogut being out and his offensive attributes. A few other things I want to mention with the return of Green and Andrew Bogut being out. This will totally switch up their rotation. The Warriors "DEATH" line-up will be playing even more minutes than usual tonight, due to Bogut being out.

Klay Thompson and Steph Curry

Thompson had an outstanding offensive night, almost as well as Kyrie Irving, but if you look in the box score, he had the worst +/- posting a -21. That is a direct correlation in his defensive ability. I get so frustrated when I hear somebody call him "an elite defender." You don't just go from horrible one on one defender to elite defender in 1 season. Some may think I'm totally wrong about Klay, but I will wait to hear and better yet see a counter argument. As for Steph Curry, once again he looked average having a below par shooting night, after having his huge 38 point game in Game 4, he was over-shadowed by Kyrie's 41 points in Game 5. He has only played like the MVP once in this series. I think he will have another average night again tonight and wait to explode for Game 7.

Cavs win tonight and keep the series alive because LeBron will have another near triple double, Kyrie will have an average game, Kevin Love, JR Smith and the bench will be the difference. My special stat to watch is the number of 3's JR Smith makes. 5 or more and the Cavs win. For the Warriors, I think Klay will have a bad game, Steph will start hot and cool off, and my X factor for the Warriors tonight is Iggy and Livingston. Both need bounce back games. Cavs still win in a very tight game.

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NBA Finals 2016 - Cleveland Cavaliers at Golden State Warriors - Game 5

NBA Finals - Cleveland Cavaliers vs Golden State Warriors Game 5

Game 4 was the most competitive, down to the last minute game so far in the series, 11 points was the margin of victory for the Warriors, but it was by far the most compelling game to watch thus far. The Cavs had so many missed defensive assignments that were compounded by Steph Curry finally showing up and having a memorable performance, finishing with 38 points. Curry played like the MVP, while his counterpart Klay Thompson came to play as well finishing with 25 points.

As for the Cavs, LeBron had a near triple-double finishing with 25 points, 13 rebounds, and 9 assists, but those 25 points and near triple-double are misleading in my opinion. He did have 11 points in the 4th quarter, but 6 of the points were scored on nearly uncontested layups with under a minute left, otherwise known as "padding one's stats," while the Cavs were exchanging layups for near automatic free-throws by Curry and Thompson. On top of his misleading stat-line, LeBron had 7 TO because of careless passes and his reluctant aggressiveness. Kyrie Irving had a big game, scoring 34 points, but that was overshadowed by Curry's 38. So besides James and Irving, the Cavs were pretty flat offensively, especially in the second half.

What's next? Game 5 in Oakland at Oracle Arena on Monday night. Will the Warriors close out the series and become back to back NBA Champions or will the Cavs stay on life support for another game? My gut says it's over on Monday, but the LeBron die hard in me hopes for the latter. I guess all we can do is watch. I hope the LeBron of Game 5 vs Detroit in 2007 comes out to play, but who knows.

Now with the suspension of Draymond Green, I believe Cleveland's chances of winning improve dramatically, mostly because of Green's versatility and his ability to defend LeBron. Yes, Iguodala is very capable of guarding LeBron and fulfilling Green's spot, but his absence will not only affect Golden State's substitutions, but their defensive capabilities. I expect this game to be a lot closer now that Green is out and maybe LeBron explodes for a huge game.

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NBA Finals 2016 - Cleveland Cavaliers at Golden State Warriors - Game 2

NBA Finals - Cleveland Cavaliers vs Golden State Warriors Game 2

Game 1 was not quite what everyone was expecting. Lebron was Lebron, but the other showcased stars of the match-up were not themselves, including the MVP Steph Curry. 11 points for Curry was not quite the Curry we're used to, but he was the reason for many wide open layups/dunks that his teammates were the recipients of, most noticeably that Draymond Green dunk when Lebron and Shumpert messed up and doubled Curry instead of switching. So yes, he had a pretty awful offensive game, but his presence was felt and effected the game. Curry and Thompson's struggles did seem to spark the Golden State bench to compensate for their struggles by outscoring the Cleveland bench 45-10. Shaun Livingston stole the show and as of now is the leading candidate for Finals MVP. Now it it's pretty improbable that he will have another performance like that, but he will most definitely play a huge role in the series, especially when Curry is resting.

As for Cleveland, their bench was invisible and downright horrible. Curry's kryptonite last year, Matthew Dellavedova, was awful and looked scared. He posted a team worst +/- of -19 and didn't help the Cavs at all. I expect him to have a better series after getting those Game 1 jitters out. A lot of people are asking "what happened to JR Smith?" He did have an awful offensive game, but that may have correlation to his outstanding defense on Klay Thompson. It will only be a matter of time before he goes off for 5+ 3's in a game. One last note: When James went out with 34.1 seconds left in the 3rd quarter, Cleveland trailed 71-68. When he returned 2:23 into the 4th, the Cavs trailed 84-70.

My Game 2 Prediction

This is a must win game for Cleveland. Going down 2-0 will be nearly impossible to comeback from. I think Cleveland's bench will out play Golden State's or at least be near even. Yes, I do think one of the Splash Brothers will have a big bounce back game, my guess is Steph, but Kyrie and K-Love will also have much better games, leading to the X-Factor of JR Smith and Cleveland's bench against Golden State's role players and bench. Besides those factors, LeBron is undefeated since 2009 in Game 2 after a Game 1 loss. So if history repeats itself, which I think it will, Cleveland will be heading home with the series tied 1-1 like I thought it would be.

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NBA Finals 2016 - Cleveland Cavaliers vs Golden State Warriors

NBA Finals - Cleveland Cavaliers vs Golden State Warriors Rematch

It's Christmas in June for NBA fans around the world. Tonight kicks off the final playoff series of the NBA season and will end with the crowning of a champion. Review last year's prediction and results made this year's prediction seem clearer. Before I begin my breakdown, I want to comment on each team's path to the NBA Finals. 

Cleveland had a much shorter path, but they were still tested (See John Schuhmann tweet). From the outside, it does seem like the Cavs had a cakewalk to the Finals due to the Eastern Conference being perceived as weak, but I would beg to differ and say the East was much better than it was last year and the #8 seed was six games above .500 unlike the Western Conference, where the #8 seed was .500.

As for Golden State, earning the #1 seed by owning the best regular season record in NBA History is pretty cool to witness. To say the least, they had an amazing season, even though my Timberpups beat them in Golden State. *Proud T-Wolves fan* Besides those 9 losses, Steph Curry was even better than he was last year, which is pretty crazy to think about, considering he broke the 3 point record last year that was held by nobody else besides himself. So he broke his own record, last year to break his old record this year, not by a little, but by 116 more made 3's or 348 more points to his points scored. That's an extra 4.41 additional PPG by 3's. Get the picture. His unanimous MVP voting results really seems as obvious as the outcome. As for the playoffs, the Warriors have gone through a bit of adversity. Losing Steph for a few games in rounds 1 and 2, to being down 3-1 against an OKC team that just knocked off arguably the best Spurs team ever. Their run has been something special.

Now to my analysis of how the series will play out. The Cavs have played 14 games to the Warriors 17. Steph has been injured and missed some games, while the Cavs roster looks very healthy. Cleveland swept 2 series and got ample rest. Golden State just finished a brutal 7 game series. Just these few statements makes it clear that the Cavs are in good position to win the series. Here are my reasons to why the Cavs will be crowned champs.

1) Last year was like everyone on the team meeting each other for the first time. It takes time to gel and play at max potential. With one full year of playing together and most importantly every player healthy, the Cavs are in much better position to win than they were compared to last year's NBA Finals.

2) Statistically, the Cavs are #2 to the Golden State in PPG this Post-season, while they lead the post-season in point differential. They are #1 in 3PM while GS is #2. GS has a slight edge in rebounding and APG, but the Cavs are giving up 10 points less than the Warriors. Read this if you like in-depth stats NBA Finals Statistical Preview.

3) I talked about health and team chemistry in reason 1, but to add to that, I think Kyrie has taken a huge step in these playoffs. His offensive dominance has taken a load off a LeBron's shoulders and allowed their whole team to succeed. His NBA Finals debut got shut down early last time because of injury, so I expect him to have extra motivation and show he can stick with Curry.

4) LeBron James: do I need to say more? 6 straight finals. That's ridiculous and unprecedented besides the Boston Celtics. Here is a graphic of his performance last year, those are video game numbers. Though he won't have near those numbers, he will have teammates to help him.

Now, do I think Golden State can win? Of course. There are plenty of reasons to why they can, could, and should win, but I think the Cavs are ready for them.

Game by game prediction:

Game 1: Cleveland

Game 2: Golden State

Game 3: Cleveland

Game 4: Golden State

Game 5: Cleveland

Game 6: Cleveland

Cavs in 6. Lebron gets ring #3 and Finals MVP.

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NBA Playoffs 2016 Conference Finals

Western Conference Finals

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Golden State Warriors

Although I was very shocked the Thunder beat the Spurs, the Thunder are playing their best basketball and have a legitimate chance to beat the Warriors. After giving up a dozen fourth quarter leads during the regular season, the Thunder were the complete opposite against the Spurs, closing out every game with great defense against the most potent offense in the NBA. Their series win was especially impressive after their Game 1 blowout vs San Antonio. After that game, I thought the Spurs were going to blow by the Thunder maybe losing a game in OKC, but then walk into the Western Conference Finals to face-off with the Warriors. Much like the Trailblazers, the Thunder were written off by just about everyone. Bill Simmons had one of most popular tweets after the game (Coach Simmons?) questioning Billy Donovan's coaching. To Bill's point, I think most people were questioning the Thunder and their effort. They bounced back after Game 1, by stealing Game 2, and the same after Game 3, with a Game 4 win. If the Thunder can steal one of two at Golden State, I think they can make this into a seven game series. I won't say they will win Game 7 at Oracle, but I think they belong in it. I am going to take the Warriors in 6, which means the Thunder will steal one, but also lose on their home court. There is just no way I can bet against a Warriors team with a decently health Curry, playing in all games.




Eastern Conference Finals

Toronto Raptors vs Cleveland Cavaliers

Congrats to the Toronto Raptors on advancing to the Eastern Conference Finals. It is such an accomplishment for that franchise. Unfortunately, they have to face the smoking hot, undefeated in this post-season, Cleveland Cavaliers on 1 day of rest. There is always the argument that they will keep the momentum from the last series and the Cavs will be rusty, but I think rest is very important, especially playing in back-to-back seven game series. The Raptors have played almost twice as many games as the Cavs (14-8). Besides the fatigue, the Cavs have been playing unstoppable with their 3 point shooting, which is never something a team should rely on, but if it works and wins games, then keep doing it. The Raptors offense is in no way able to keep up with the Cavs' offense, so their best bet is to grind them out and beat them up inside, because when the Cavs go "small" I think the Raptors are going to be in serious trouble of allowing big runs. 2-3 three pointers and an easy bucket in a row is all the Cavs need to open up the flood gates. Before the playoffs started I picked the Cavs over the Raptors in 6, but with how the playoffs have played out and how the Cavs have been playing, I'm taking Cleveland in 5 to advance to the NBA Finals again to face the Golden State Warriors.

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