NBA Finals 2017 - Cleveland Cavaliers vs Golden State Warriors

NBA Finals - Cleveland Cavaliers vs Golden State Warriors Volume 3

I didn’t want to write anything for the NBA Finals because I just wanted to enjoy the series as it unfolds, but as the days before Game 1 passed, I was itching to explain how I think the series will go. As we near tip-off of Game 1, more and more thoughts and snippets of why each team should win come to mind.

The Warriors

Kevin Durant is the best player on the Warriors and the main reason they returned to the Finals. I’m not saying the Warriors wouldn’t have made it if he’d still be in OKC or if Kawhi hadn’t been injured, but he was the difference maker of why they dominated through the first 3 rounds of playoffs. KD wants a ring and that’s why he signed with Golden State. This is the whole reason KD came to Golden State, not winning, in my mind would be a total failure. I know some people with counter with, but LeBron didn’t win in his first year in Miami with his “super” team. True, but the 2009-2010 Heat team that LeBron was coming to finished 47-35, 5^th seed, and lost to the Celtics 4-1 in the first round of the playoffs, not arguably the greatest regular season, NBA record setting 73 wins, that was up 3-1 in the Finals, with the back to back, 2016 unanimous MVP team. LeBron also played horrible and uncharacteristically in the 2011 Finals. So for KD and the Warriors to lose would be pretty shocking and inexcusable for them.  To wrap up my Kevin Durant segment, there is no reason he should lose and in my opinion, the 2^nd best player in the world should never “ring chase” by joining one of the greatest teams in my generation. If he wins, he’ll have a ring, but in no way climbs the ladder of greatest player’s rankings.

As for Steph Curry and the rest of Warriors team, nobody likes losing twice in a row, so Steph and the 2016 team has that as one of their main motivations. We’ve seen it countless times where a team loses the year before and then comes back with vengeance to hoist the trophy. LeBron and co. did it last year to the Warriors. Lakers did it to Celtics in 2010. Spurs did it to the Heat in 2014. It’s very, very difficult to repeat in any sport. A lot of people still think that if Draymond Green hadn’t been suspended, the Warriors would have won the next game and been crowned. I’m sure he is extremely sour still. I think last year’s finals loss hurts Steph Curry more than any of the players on the team because, last year was all about him. The MVP, the most 3’s, the record setting wins, the shoes, etc. but out of all the players on team that were supposed to play their best, Steph did not. In fact, Kyrie Irving outplayed him (Curry) and cemented Irving’s victory between the two with his (Irving’s) game winning shot while being guarded by Curry. It really was like a heroic Hollywood blockbuster. We’ll see if Curry and co. come out looking for blood in Game 1 or if the Cavs can slow down the juggernaut. 

The Cavs

Obviously every game is important, but Game 1 is the most overrated game in any series. Game 1 will be won by the Warriors. The Warriors will have all the hype and the crowd and whatever, but Game 2 will be the real test. LeBron has won one game 1 in his NBA Finals career and that was against the Dallas Mavericks, who LeBron eventually loss to. So if history repeats itself, the Warriors will win and I’m ok with that. When game 2 starts, all bets are off. Unlike last year when Cleveland started down 0-2, this year they will steal a game on the road. My thought is that KD will have a great game 1 and people will think the series is over, KD and the Warriors are looking ready to roll, but that’s when Cleveland strikes back and steals game 2. Then we will have a series.

Bench and Role Players

Last night I was watching The Jump’s NBA Finals Preview and either Paul Pierce or Scottie Pippen said that the Cavs didn’t improve their bench. That’s insulting. They picked up Kyle Korver, who has struggled as of late, but everyone knows he is one of the deadliest 3 point shooters in the NBA. They upgraded from Matthew Dellavedova with Deron Williams, who has proved through these playoffs that he can still play quality minutes, when Kyrie needs a rest. Not only are these bench upgrades valuable, Tristan Thompson is a full time starter and key player instead of a below average center in Timofey Mozgov. Channing Frye played only 29 minutes in the Boston series, but I would expect him to play some valuable minutes, spacing the court with his deadly 3 point range in this series. Frye has shot 30/55 on FGs, 69% of those shots being 3’s, making 20/38 for 52.6 %. I’m not exactly sure why he didn’t play much against Boston, but I’m sure coach Lue will find time for him in this series. JR Smith is one of my dark horses in this series. He has been unusually quiet in these playoffs and since he has returned from his knee injury that he suffered earlier this season. I think we’re all waiting for him to have one his games where explodes from 3. Although he’s been relatively quiet, his net rating for this season’s playoffs is a crazy 19.1 and his +/- is better than last year’s +/-. So although no offensive explosions, his value on the court has been recognized.

Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving

In year 3 since LeBron has returned, the "Big 3" is gelling better than they ever have before. After nearly disappearing in last year's playoffs and finals, Kevin Love is back on top of his game. Just 3 years ago he was arguably the top PF in the NBA. The last 2 years he did struggle fitting into the Cavs, but he's back to his peak form. Kevin Love will have a breakout game during these finals to seal at least 1 victory for the Cavs.

Kyrie has had a quiet playoffs for Kyrie. He seemed to find his shot during the Boston series and get back into that "Uncle Drew" mode. He's healthy and better than he was a year ago, so I foresee him have a couple of 30 point performances to take the load off of LeBron. If Kyrie can outplay Steph Curry once, he can do it again.

LeBron

Where do I even begin. 7 straight Finals. 7 straight Finals. In a few years, we're going to say 10 straight finals and be bored with it. So let me get this straight, the best player in the world, is playing the best basketball of his career and people are doubting him and picking the opponent in 5 games??? (Insert Nick Young meme). Did people not watch the last 2 NBA Finals? We thought LeBron was Superman in the last two finals and now he is playing better than that. The only other thing to compare him to now is the ultimate player, Michael Jordan. I’ve watched LeBron for years and when I watched him toy with defenders this post season, he looked like MJ, when MJ used to make defenders look silly. 11/13 games he has scored 30 or more, last season’s playoffs, he didn’t score 30 until game 6 of the Toronto series in the ECF. LeBron has learned how to control the game and not in a one-on-on isolation from the left wing way. (See 2015 Finals). He's doing it with his passing and efficiency. His 3 point shooting is at a career best, where teams aren't allowed to go under screens on PnRs, forcing James to shoot. He has proved this post-season that he will destroy teams if they dare him to shoot from deep, connecting at 42%. I'll take LeBron James playing at his best over any team and like Tom Brady, I will never bet against LeBron.

*side note: Mike Brown being the coach might have a bigger impact than we can determine.

Game by game prediction:

Game 1:  Golden State

Game 2: Cleveland

Game 3: Cleveland

Game 4: Golden State

Game 5: Golden State

Game 6: Cleveland
Game 7: Cleveland

Cavs in 7. Lebron gets ring #4 and Finals MVP.

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NBA Playoffs 2017 2nd Round

Western Conference Semis

Houston Rockets vs San Antonio Spurs

I expected both teams to advance, but I didn't expect San Antonio to struggle so much with Memphis. After winning the first game by 29, looking like the team I thought they were, they started game 2 well, but almost let that game slip away. Losing the next 2 on the road, but eventually closing out the series in 6, the Spurs aren't as good as I thought they were. Their offense looked very one dimensional, i.e. Kawhi Leonard go 1 on 1 and he will make something happen. What happened to the infamous Spurs ball movement? *See 2014 NBA Finals vs Heat. Maybe it was just Memphis' game plan and style, but that series has put a lot of doubt in my mind for any chance of the Spurs beating the Warriors in the WCF. As for Houston, I thought they played incredible, most of the series. They let Westbrook do his thing, but Westbrook couldn't finish the job, due to his fatigue. I wouldn't be surprised one bit if Houston pushes this series to 7. I'm taking the Spurs in 7 with no consecutive wins by either team.

Utah Jazz/LA Clippers vs Golden State Warriors

Seems odd that there is only one game 7 in the first round, but it will a good one. You couldn't ask for  a more competitive series with both teams winning on the road in very close games. Whatever the outcome, neither team stands a chance against the Warriors. Personally, I think the Jazz are going to win today and face the Warriors, even though I originally picked the Clippers to win the series. Even though some people think the Clippers play better without Blake Griffin, I refuse to believe that because in the playoffs, teams need all of their star players to play in order to win. If the Clippers win, I have the Warriors winning 4-1. If the Jazz win, I think they would put up a better fight against Golden State due to their style of play and defense. That being said, Warriors would still win the series 4-2.

Eastern Conference Semis

Toronto Raptors vs Cleveland Cavaliers

Before the playoffs started, I thought the Raptors were the 2nd best team in the East, disregarding their record. They held on to the 3 seed without Lowry and now with him back they were poised to make a deep playoff run. Can't say I still feel that way after watching their series with Milwaukee. It seems Lowry and co. are going back into their shells once the playoffs start.I thought they should have destroyed Milwaukee in 4, maybe 5 games with the return of Lowry and addition of Serge. At least DeRozan looked better down the stretch, I can't say I'm expecting much from them in this series with the Cavs. Cleveland may have swept Indiana, but all 4 games were super close. I expect Toronto to be competitive at least at home, but much like the Pacers, they won't be able to close out at the end of games. Cavs win 4-1.

Washington Wizards vs Boston Celtics

Is John Wall a superstar or what? He keeps pushing the envelope in terms of people talking about him as one of the best PGs in the league. Some people might say Kyrie, some might say Wall. John Wall was the reason the Wizards won their series vs Atlanta. I really want to take the Wizards over the Celtics in this series, but the Celtics have one of the best closers in the league with Isaiah Thomas. Maybe if Rondo wouldn't have gone down, the Bulls may have pulled off the upset, but I think that series woke up the Celtics. I'm sticking with the guys in green in an epic 7 game series. Celtics in 7.


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NBA Playoffs 2017

2017 NBA Playoffs

Western Conference

#1 Golden State Warriors vs #8 Portland Trail Blazers

Much like last year's 2nd round match-up between the teams, there is a lot of hype. Both teams ended the season very strong. But like last year, the Blazers won't win more than a game. This will be a good series for Durant and co. to get some rust off and be ready for their 2nd round opponents. GS wins 4-1.

#4 LA Clippers vs #5 Utah Jazz

As always, the 4/5 match-up will be one of the best series in the first round of the NBA playoffs. I see this series going 6 or 7 games with either team winning the series.The Jazz are a scary team to play because they have one of the best defenses in the league, anchored by the Frenchman, Rudy Gobert, who I think should win DPOY. My counter argument is that the Clippers also have one of the best defensive players in the league with Jordan, so they almost equal each other out. The Clippers win this series 4-2 and move on to face their hated rivals, the Warriors. Unlike last year's playoffs, the Clips are healthy and rolling.

#3 Houston Rockets vs #6 Oklahoma City Thunder

This is easily the most enticing series of the playoffs. The MVP voting should have had to wait until this series is over to truly decide who wins MVP. Clearly, Westbrook and Harden are the headliners for MVP this year and I expect them to keep up their phenomenal performances in this series. Unfortunately, one team has to lose and that will be the Thunder. I expect OKC to win 2 games, but Houston is a better and deeper team with an offense that even Russ and co. can't keep up with. Russ is still the MVP, but Harden and the Rockets win the series 4-2. Mike D'Antoni is my Coach of the Year.

#2 San Antonio Spurs vs #7 Memphis Grizzlies 

Much like last year's series, the Grizzlies are in a tough spot, with their defensive stopper and the guy who brings "grit" to the team, Tony Allen is out indefinitely. Memphis stands no chance beatng the Spurs in this series. They might get a win at home, but most likely this will be a sweep. SA sweeps 4-0 and goes on to play Houston for the battle of Texas.

Eastern Conference 

#1 Boston Celtics vs #8 Chicago Bulls

Experience, experience, experience...the Celtics have next to none, while D-Wade, Rondo and co have tons. Yes, Boston is a much better team, but playoff experience is invaluable and will play a part in this series. Boston earned the #1 seed, but personally I don't even think they are better than a healthy Toronto team. If Toronto was the #4 seed instead of #3, I would take Toronto over Boston. Boston wins this series in 6, 4-2.

#4 Washington Wizards vs #5 Atlanta Hawks

To me, Washington is by far a better team than Atlanta. If they (Washington) wouldn't have had that awful start, they might be the #2 or #3 seed. I think John Wall will shred Atlanta. I'm taking the Wizards in 6.

#3 Toronto Raptors vs #6 Milwaukee Bucks

Toronto, when healthy, can compete with just about anyone. It's awesome that the Bucks are in the playoffs and even more impressive that they did it without one of their best players, Jabari Parker. I don't think anybody expects Milwaukee to beat Toronto, but it seems like a promising future for a young and athletic Milwaukee team. Toronto wins 4-1.

#2 Cleveland Cavaliers vs #7 Indiana Pacers

If anyone is doubting if the Cavs are ready for the playoffs, this series will be a good indication.  If LeBron says he's not worried about seeding, I don't think he is. 6 straight finals appearances in enough validation for me. Paul George might put the team on his back and win one game in Indy, but I don't see this series anything more than a warm-up series for the Cavs. Cleveland sweeps 4-0.

Western Conference Semis

#1 GSW vs #4 LA Clippers: GSW wins 4-2

#2 SAS vs #3 HOU: SAS wins 4-2

Eastern Conference Semis

#1 Boston Celtics vs #4 Washington Wizards: Boston win 4-3  

#2 Cleveland Cavaliers vs #3 Toronto Raptors: Cleveland wins 4-2

Western Conference Finals

#1 Golden State Warriors vs #2 San Antonio Spurs: GSW wins 4-3

Eastern Conference Finals

#1 Boston Celtics vs #2 Cleveland Cavaliers: CLE wins 4-2

NBA Finals

Cleveland Cavaliers win in 6.

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2017 NFL Playoffs Divisional Round

2017 NFL Playoffs Divisional Round

AFC Playoffs

New England Patriots vs Houston Texans

I'm taking the Patriots obviously, but I say the Texans stay around until the 4th quarter. 30-13 New England goes on to the AFC Championship. .

Kansas City Chiefs vs Pittsburgh Steelers

I think we can all agree, this game should be the better of the 2 AFC games. I can honestly seeing this game go either way. Pittsburgh is loaded with the 3 headed monster of Ben, Brown, and Bell, but beating KC in KC is rare. I think they are truly the only team that could beat New England and I think they will beat Pittsburgh because of their defense. KC moves on to the AFC Championship beating Pittsburgh 23-20.

NFC Playoffs

Atlanta Falcons vs Seattle Seahawks 

Like I talked about in previous post, Atlanta will look to avenge their earlier season loss vs Seattle that ended in controversy. If Matt Ryan is truly the MVP, the Falcons will win by beating the infamous Seattle defense. I can't bet against Seattle in the playoffs, so I'm sticking to my pre-season prediction of having Seattle in the NFC Championship. Somebody wins or loses on a FG, Seattle wins 27-25.

Dallas Cowboys vs Green Bay Packers

I'm sad that the KC vs Pittsburgh game was moved behind this game because this would have been an excellent conclusion to the 2nd round of the playoffs. Nonetheless, it will be an incredible game. I think it will be a lot like last year's GB vs AZ game, where it was high scoring, exciting, and game down to the wire. Green Bay doesn't seem as defensively stout as they were in years past, but I think Rodgers and the Packer's playoff experience is going to be the deciding factoring in this game. Green Bay wins 30-27.

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2017 NFL Playoff Wild Card Preview

2017 NFL Playoffs Wild Card Preview

AFC Playoffs

Oakland Raiders at Houston Texans

This game kicks off wild card weekend, which is not going to be fun to watch. On one side, we have the Houston Texans, who are by far the worst team in the playoffs. I quite honestly wish the Titans or Colts would have been in their spot. It will be just another showcase of why Brock Osweiler is overpaid and not good. On the other side, there is a very good Oakland team, which just got hit by a freight train, losing their star and leader, franchise-saving QB, Derek Carr. The Raiders were on the cusp of earning the #1 or #2 seed, to dropping to #5 seed, losing their QB, and now playing on the road. I believe it's just bad luck for Oakland, but if Carr can comeback full strength, I believe Oakland will be a playoff team for years to come.

As for the outcome of the game, in my opinion, it's a toss-up. Oakland has a lot of offensive weapons, but now nobody to get the ball to the likes of Crabtree and Amari Cooper. I still think they can power through with their defense and Houston's lack of offense to win this game. As long as Connor Cook plays mistake free or not as bad as Brock Osweiler, Oakland has a good chance to take this one on the road. Oakland wins 20-13.

Miami Dolphins at Pittsburgh Steelers

After starting down 20-0, Miami made a small comeback and showed some life vs New England, but eventually losing handily. With Tannehill out, the Dolphins stand no chance to beat the Steelers. Even with Tannehill playing, the Dolphins chances were slim. With Le'Veon Bell back and playing like an MVP candidate, the Steelers should be able to march right through the Dolphins. I'll take the Steelers 27-17.

As for the top two seeds, #1 New England Patriots and #2 Kansas City Chiefs, both are deserving of their seeds and should beat their upcoming foes and then face each other in the AFC Championship. I could see Pittsburgh beating the Chiefs, but it's hard to beat KC at Arrowhead Stadium. Either way, the AFC Championship will be a great showdown. 

The Patriots have by far, the easiest route to the AFC Championship. The following graphic (courtesy of Bleacher Report) shows the Patriots potential QB match up for next round, barring the Dolphins beating the Steelers in Pittsburgh, without Tannehill, and then Tannehill coming back from injury to play against New England. As I predicted in the beginning of the year, I think the Patriots will be going back to the Super Bowl after they captured the #1 seed after making the mistake last year of not capturing home field advantage, resulting in losing to the Broncos in Denver. It also doesn't hurt that Tom Brady could be the MVP and LeGarrette Blount had arguably the best season in his career, totaling 18 rushing TDs and over 1100 yards.

NFC Playoffs

Detroit Lions at Seattle Seahawks

This game would have been epic had it happened a couple of months ago when both teams were playing lights out. Meanwhile, Detroit, who controlled the NFC North, lost their last 3 games of the season and ended up losing the division crown. To add insult to injury, Detroit has to travel to Seattle, where Seattle is 7-1 at home. Those circumstances do not seem favorable. Fortunately, the Seahawks aren't doing much better. Seattle went 3-3 over the last 6 weeks, with a pounding from Green Bay, a blunder against Tampa Bay, their only home loss against Arizona, and just sneaking by the pitiful 49ers. But unlike Detroit, the playoffs are familiar to the Seahawks. I expect their defense to sack Matthew Stafford multiple times, causing him to rush throws and throw interceptions. Not saying this will be a blowout, but Seattle should win handily 24-13.

New York Giants at Green Bay Packers

This is by far the best game in the first round of the 2017 NFL Playoffs. Both teams are good enough to go to the Super Bowl. Green Bay and Aaron Rodgers have been playing lights out since Rodgers said they could run the table. The Giants swept the #1 seed Dallas Cowboys in the regular season and denied Washington's playoff hopes in a seemingly meaningless game to New York. Like in Manning's other 2 Super Bowl championship years, they are a wild card team that is coming in hot. New York's defense has been playing great and their offense is explosive. Green Bay has one of the weakest and most beat up secondaries in the NFL. I expect Eli, OBJ and Sterling Shepard to have big games vs the Packers defense. The only concerning thing for the Giants is Eli's costly turnovers. This game could turn into a shootout like last year's Arizona-Green Bay playoff game. Rodgers has also been playing like the MVP of the league during the win streak. He ended up leading the NFL in passing touchdowns and has been carving up defenses. Being a Vikings fan, I don't want to see Green Bay win, but at home, in the playoffs, with Aaron Rodgers playing like he is, I can't see New York beating Green Bay. I like Green Bay over New York 30-23. 

For me, it's hard to judge Atlanta. They started off hot (4-1), then lost a couple, and then got hot again at the end of the season, beating bad teams. Matt Ryan might be the front runner for MVP and Vic Beasley led the NFL in sacks. It seems probable that Dan Quinn will get to host his former team in the next round of the playoffs and possibly avenge their prior loss that ended with a controversial no-call defensive pass interference (Pass Interference?) (Dan Quinn's Reaction). I'm finding it really hard to believe Atlanta will get over the hump and into the NFC Championship, but I'm not very confident that Seattle is that much better than Atlanta, especially with Russell Wilson not playing great and missing 1 of the members of L.O.B. in Earl Thomas. Maybe Matty Ice will have a statement game, proving to everybody he is the MVP of the league this season by beating the infamous Seattle defense that has been their foundation for the past 5 years. And with Seattle's "luck" at the end of games, I'm sure this game will come down to made...or missed field goal (cough cough Blair Walsh). Since Seattle hasn't beat Detroit yet, I'll wait until next week to predict the winner.

And finally we get to the Cowboys, the #1 seed. What a turn around for a franchise. Last year they were in the bottom of the cellar, now they are on top being led by 2 rookies and an amazing offensive line. They are the most superior team in the NFC and it's not even close. Their game plan is good and their defense does enough to win games. Now, I'm not saying they can't be beaten, but they have a good recipe for success. My biggest concern for the Cowboys is: EXPERIENCE. Come their first game and they might be playing one of the most experienced playoff QB's in the league in either Rodgers or Eli Manning. Either are inevitable, barring a miraculous Detroit victory in Seattle. I wouldn't be surprised if next week they are playing the Packers and are considered the underdog. The Cowboys will show their true colors in their first game. They'll either be a 1 and done like a Kentucky basketball freshman or they will go all the way to the Super Bowl.

Divisional Round

AFC

#1. New England Patriots vs #5. Oakland Raiders

#2. Kansas City Chiefs vs #3. Pittsburgh Steelers

NFC

#1. Dallas Cowboys vs #4. Green Bay Packers

#2. Atlanta Falcons vs #3. Seattle Seahawks

NFC Championship

Seattle Seahawks vs Green Bay Packers

AFC Championship

New England Patriots vs Kansas City Chiefs

SUPER BOWL

New England Patriots vs Green Bay Packers

Super Bowl Champions
New England Patriots

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