NBA Season Preview and Predictions
As always, there were a number of big time player personnel changes and signings this off-season. Due to the small amount of players on each team, each signing can significantly change each team's season outcome. I will disregard some obvious signings that are technically free agent signings, but re-signing was so obvious that I won't consider it a big change (Tim Duncan, Kevin Love, and LeBron). I will start with the Western Conference, then analyze the Eastern Conference, and finally predict the NBA Playoffs, Finals, and MVP.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
The biggest signing this off-season has to be the
San Antonio Spurs signing LaMarcus Aldridge. This move affected the whole NBA. The Spurs are now the favorite to win the title and respectably should be. With the old core 3 of Duncan, Parker, and Ginobili staying around for another year, add that to one of the best both way players in Kawhi Leonard, and now add a Top 5, offensively dominant, proven PF, you have yourself a top team without mentioning their bench. Now to talk about their bench, they signed another huge free agent, David West. Though he is past his prime, West is still a very good player, that can give a team a 20-10 night every once and a while, but can also lead a strong second unit when Duncan and LA head for the bench. Though past his prime as well, picking up Rasual Butler was a nice pick up that could come in handy in some situations.
I only have a few concerns for this team. One has to be age of their regulars; their core 3, Diaw, and now West. Obviously Popovich will be limiting their minutes and using them strategically, but last year we saw Parker be hampered by a hamstring injury that brought a lot of concern to their season and longevity. Another concern is how they will mesh now with LA. He's use to getting the ball almost every possession and firing up a high volume of shots in Portland, where he was the man. I'm sure David West will fit in great, especially knowing that he took a pay-cut just to be on the team. That is serious sacrifice and dedication to be on a legitimate title contender. My last concern for the Spurs is their lack of a true center. Losing Tiago Splitter will have some type of effect. As I look at their roster, they have 4 centers listed (Matt Bonner & Boris Diaw are listed as Center-Forwards). All 4 don't even have a picture nor can I pronounce their name. I'm not saying it's a big deal, especially with the league merging into a center-less league, using small, faster line-ups, but it might cut into Tim Duncan's bench time, meaning Duncan would have to play more mins due to a lack of true center with NBA experience. Just a thought. Besides those few concerns, the Spurs will most likely finish in the top 4 of the Western Conference and make a push to the NBA Finals come playoff time, where I believe they will knock Golden State off their throne and represent the West in the NBA Finals.
The
Golden State Warriors had a phenomenal season last year. 67 wins is very impressive. I think they will have the best record in the NBA for the regular season, finishing with 60 or more again. Though they will be crowned with the best record, they won't be crowned the Western Conference champs. It's very hard to repeat championships, especially when your team doesn't make many moves in the off-season. The old mantra "if it ain't broke, don't fix it" comes to mind here. To me, I don't think they had to do anything because they are the champs and their team is still one of best teams in the league. Luckily for them, their young guys are only getting better, including the MVP Steph Curry and Klay Thompson. My concern though is that their competition did go fishing to try and beat them. Most noticeably the Spurs and Clippers, who re-signed and brought in veterans that can play.
Next in line are the
LA Clippers. Every year since the Clippers signed Chris Paul, we knew they were going to make the playoffs, but nobody thinks they will win the title. They have arguably the best PG in the league with Chris Paul, a top 3 PF in Blake Griffin, a freakishly athletic, defensive stopper center in DeAndre Jordan, and a very well rounded supporting cast, you still get a team that will make the playoffs, but not win the title. Don't get me wrong, the Clippers are a legitimate threat to win the title this year and have the talent to do it, they just crack under pressure and can't get over the hump. I think re-signing Jordan was huge for their team. He is a very valuable player to have on the team, I wouldn't pay a max contract for him, but then again without him, the Clippers defense would be horrific. They also signed "The Truth" Paul Pierce from Washington. They nabbed Josh Smith from the Rockets for the veteran's minimum, smart move in my opinion and if it means anything they also signed Lance Stephenson for some SG/SF depth with the departure of Matt Barnes to Memphis.
In my opinion, those are the top 3 teams in the Western Conference, but the west is so stacked, 1-6 could move drastically. The 3-6 slots are the hardest to predict because we can't really know where everyone will end up until all the games are played and sometimes like we saw last year, the entire playoff seeding switched every day for the last month of the season. That being said, I think the
OKC Thunder will end up in this range. With Kevin Durant back and hopefully in the mix for MVP, the Thunder will be legitimate title contenders again. As for Westbrook, WOW! That man had an incredible season, despite being injured at the start of the season and losing his best teammate. Westbrook made the most out of KD's absence by leading the league in scoring, and notching triple-doubles left and right. Now with the duo healthy, let's watch them get back to the best 1-2 duo in the league. I think they will finish 3-5 in the regular season, but I wouldn't be surprised if they were #2 and knocked Golden State out in the NBA Playoffs.
The
Houston Rockets pulled off a huge comeback by defeating the Clippers in last year's playoffs, but I'm afraid they won't have near the same success as they did last post season. I think James Harden will have another MVP like season, maybe even win it, but his team lacks depth and that is what hurt them down the line. Bringing in Ty Lawson was a huge grab, though risky with his past, he can provide them with great speed and relief to Patrick Beverly. I like Sam Dekker, I think he has a small chance at being a Chandler Parsons replacement, but he will have to prove that. I won't leave Dwight Howard out because the bottom line of this team is how far James Harden and Dwight Howard can carry them. With how stacked the west is again, I don't see them getting out of the first round of the playoffs this season.
The
Memphis Grizzlies did a few things right this off-season, but not enough things right. Signing Matt Barnes and Brendan Wright are great pick-ups, but not getting any shooters when your team literally is the worst 3 point shooting team in the league seems foolish. Memphis still relies on old school, pound it inside basketball. It works for them, but with the league morphing into a high volume of 3 pointers per game game-plan, Memphis will be left in the dust aka the first round of the playoffs.
Last two spots are very tricky. It's very hard to tell who will snag these two spots. I think the 6 above are locks to make the playoffs, but the order is TBD. I'm almost certain we will get to see Anthony Davis and the
New Orleans Pelicans again this post season. Last season was just a preview of what this young man will be doing for the next 15 years. Davis has risen so fast and so high in the NBA ranks, people forget he is going into his 4th year and is only 22 years old. The kid is a monster and will be the next KG/Duncan combination, dominant big man that apparently has been working on his 3 point game. Watch out kids. I would like to see him get his assists up this year because right now he sits at a career 1.6 assists per game and a 1.08 AST/TO ratio...Not good. When he starts making his teams look better, than he will take the next step into greatness. As for his team, they aren't too shabby. They have a good interior and some guards that can play. Signing Cole was a good pick up as well. I expect them to make the playoffs.
The last team I am going to pick to get into the playoffs this year is the
Utah Jazz. This may be a bold pick, leaving out the Phoenix Suns and Dallas Mavericks, but the Jazz have a young, talented core, led by Gordon Hayward and Trey Burke. I really like their draft pick Trey Lyles. I think he has the potential to be a Carlos Boozer, Paul Millsap type. Not coincidental that both those players also played for the Jazz, it just seems like Lyles could be a PF that can knock down the mid-range with ease and be a good rebounder for 10+ years in the league. One other kid that I like on this team is their defensive anchor, Rudy Gobert. Though he got hammered on by MN's Andrew Wiggins, Gobert is not afraid to challenge anyone at the rim. With him in the middle they can go above .500 and round out the NBA Playoffs for the 8th seed.
The first team left at home watching the playoffs will be the
Phoenix Suns. Yes, they are on the come up with Eric Bledsoe and Brandon Knight, but splitting up the Morris twins was a mistake in my book. I might be a little biased due to my love for the Jayhawks, but I think these two together bring more good than bad to a team. I expect another year of being in the hunt for the 8th spot, but just not making the cut.
The
Dallas Mavericks are in a worst state of mind than a 16 year old girl going through her first break-up. Losing DeAndre Jordan after getting him, had to be soul crushing. With him they would have maybe signed some other players to make a run at a championship, but now without him, they won't even make the playoffs. My favorite player before LeBron, Dirk Nowitzki is a legend and always will be, but his time has come to retire. He would still work people in pro-ams, but he is such a liability on defense that his offensive production does not cut it anymore. Not only that, they lost Tyson Chandler, Monta Ellis, and Rajon Rondo. They lost 3 starters and missed out on the DJ. Not a good off-season for the shark Mr. Mark Cuban. To give them a little help, they signed Wes Matthews, who will be coming off an injury and they signed Deron Williams. Deron Williams is not the Deron Williams of his Utah Jazz days, let's just make that clear.
The next 4 teams are nowhere close to making the playoffs, but have good, young talent, that could be in the playoffs in a few seasons. The
Trail Blazers, much like the Mavericks, lost just about their whole starting line-up. Lillard will be their only legitimate star. He will be very frustrated after 2 season of success and now heading backwards. The bright side for them is that they can only go up because you can't get much lower.
Sacramento is an interesting case. They have an MVP like center in Boogie Cousins, a once Top 5 PG with Rajon Rondo, who they got from the Mavs, and Rudy Gay, who is a proven scorer, but usually doesn't help a team win. Last year they started off hot as a fire and then fell off the wagon as a team and organization. I can't see playoffs this year, but I can see some personnel changes. I guess we will have to see if Willie Cauley-Stein pans out and makes the Kings' Kentucky front court a force on both sides of the court.
The next two teams have the top 2 draft picks. The MN Timberwolves drafted Karl-Anthony Towns and the Lakers took D'Angelo Russel. Both the right picks in my opinion. I personally met KAT this fall and I was impressed with how intelligent and smooth he was. Now that is nothing to do with his basketball abilities, but I think his intelligence sticks out on the court. D'Angelo on the other hand is a flashy player that can bring star power. I think both will be stars in years to come, but I think KAT will be the Rookie of the Year.
For the
Timberwolves, they did exactly what they needed to do in drafting Towns. He will be the next Anthony Davis. The kid will be a monster in 3 years. Alongside Andrew Wiggins, the reigning Rookie of the year, the Puppies will have a dynamic duo for the next 10+ years, barring they stick together. If Ricky Rubio can stay healthy for once and KG can mold KAT into a defensive monster that Garnett had been for his whole career, I think Towns can be the new KG of Minnesota and the Wolves can make the playoffs within 2 years. They aren't near the playoffs this year, but they are taking the right steps and progression to getting there. They still need a full-time coach as well.
The BLACK MAMBA is BACK. The NBA is a better place when Kobe can play. I have always admired and respected Kobe and I will always keep him behind Jordan, but Kobe is the closest thing to Jordan for our generation. I think LeBron is more talented than Kobe, but Kobe will stay in front of LeBron in terms of greatness as long as he has more rings the LBJ. I don't think Kobe will retire this season, but I think he should. The
Lakers are clearly moving in another direction, but Kobe is hampering the process. He has earned the right to stay on as long as he wants, but with the Lakers in the position they are in, need to part ways and move on to making D'Angelo Russel their star. The Lakers missed out huge again in free agency, which is no surprise because nobody wants to play on a bad team.
Lastly, the
Denver Nuggets. I like their pick Mudiay because I think he will fit right in after the departure of Ty Lawson. Being on a bad team with little to no face of the franchise, Mudiay can become the face and star if he pans out. He will have the help of veteran PG Jameer Nelson to show him the ropes and Danilo Gallinari to pass to for 3's, but this team is just a team that would be great at open gym, but horrible when structure is needed. Mike Malone is a good hire, but the Nuggets are in for a long season.
EASTERN CONFERENCE
Why does the east struggle so much compared to the west? Is it because the talent is not dense enough to cover 30 teams? Is it because of salary caps? Weather? I don't know, but clearly something is wrong when the 6-8th seeds were .500 or worse. Knowing this, the Cleveland Cavaliers have a much easier route through the NBA playoffs than any western team. Like last season, when the Cavs only lost 2 post season games prior to the NBA Finals, they will have a similar route this year, maybe by getting challenged more against Chicago and Atlanta again. Without a doubt, the Cavs will be representing the East in the NBA Finals again unless LeBron goes out with an injury. I have read some things, saying he will watch his minutes this year to be less worn when the playoffs come this year. With that, it won't be likely he will be the MVP of this season, but that doesn't motivate him anymore. Rings do, and if he has to sacrifice a regular season MVP award he most certainly will. I still be believe the Cavs would have won the finals if Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving did not get injured. Much like LeBron's 3rd season in Miami, I think the Cavs are going to cruise through the NBA regular season, barring injury, earning the #1 or #2 seed for the playoffs and return to the NBA Finals again, hungry to win a title.
I think the 2nd best team in the East is up for grabs between the Bulls, Hawks, and Toronto Raptors. I left the Miami Heat out of the top 4 because I think they are being way over hyped and will have to prove they are a top team in the east. Just because Chris Bosh is back doesn't make them a top 3 team. Both Bosh and Wade are injury prone and aging. Dragic is a good PG, but not elite. Hassan Whiteside is a defensive stopper, but still needs an offensive game. They are #5 in my book in the east until they prove they are elite.
The Atlanta Hawks will be good again. Despite losing DeMarre Carroll to the Toronto Raptors, I think the Hawks will take the #1 or #2 seed again, competing for the top spot with the Cavs. With losing Carroll, they picked up the experience center Tiago Splitter and retained Paul Millsap. I don't think they will beat the Cavs in the playoffs, but I think they can easily earn the #1 or #2 seed for the playoffs.
The Chicago Bulls' success will forever rest on the shoulders of Derrick Rose. Even with Jimmy Butler becoming a superstar, Rose is their golden ticket. Seeing reports that the two (Rose and Butler) have had leadership conflict is not good for a squad. Those two together can be nightmares to cover. I do hope Rose gets back to his MVP form, but I will have to stay skeptical until he can stay on the floor. Hiring Fred Hoiberg is another important piece of the puzzle. I'm not sure the Bulls will stay the same hard-nosed, defensive team they had been with Tom Thibodeau at the lead, now with a new coach.
The Toronto Raptors made a big move signing DeMarre Carroll. He may not be a superstar, but he is a very valuable and versatile player. I expect him to fit right it with DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry, who has been tearing it up this pre-season. I expect another big year from the Raptors and hopefully a first round series victory that they have longed-for.
The 6-8 seeds will be extremely hard to predict because so many of these teams are right on the brink of making the playoffs. I want to say the Washington Wizards and Milwaukee Bucks are locks to make the playoffs, but I can't say for sure. The Wiz lost Paul Pierce, which he may be old, but he did win them a playoff game last year and was a huge part of their success. The team is John Wall's now, and not that I think they won't make the playoffs, I just think the teams I've listed before them are better.
As for the Milwaukee Bucks, they will be fun to watch. With Jabari Parker back after injury and the acquisition of Greg Monroe from the Pistons, they have a serious starting line-up. My concern for them is that they have no shooters and they play more like an AAU team. They will be exciting, but they won't be making it past the first round.
The last team that makes into the Eastern Conference Playoffs will be the Indiana Pacers over Boston, Detroit, Charlotte, Brooklyn, and the Knicks. All 5 could very well be the 7th or 8th seed as we saw last season, how the end of the season finish was crazy to get the last spots. Paul George being back, signing Monta Ellis, and shipping Roy Hibbert to the LA Lakers are all good moves in the right direction. Unfortunately they lost David West to the Spurs, so there goes their front court, but they drafted Myles Turner to hopefully space the floor out rather than West and Hibbert clogging up the lane down low.
The Boston Celtics were the 7th seed last year. Unfortunately, I think they didn't make enough moves to get back to the playoffs this year. Like all these on the bubble teams, they could very well make it, but I doubt it. Good thing for them is that they are gearing up for the future with draft picks and young player.
The Detroit Pistons, much like the Celtics are right on the brink for a playoff spot. Getting Reggie Jackson and drafting Stanley Johnson were great moves. Stanley will be a stud in years to come. Andre Drummond is also an important part to this Detroit core. Too bad they had to part ways with Greg Monroe, but that will open up room for Drummond and others to progress.
The New York Knicks are going to have another losing season. Although I like their move to sign Robin Lopez and Aaron Afflalo, they won't be enough for Carmelo to lead the Knicks back to the post-season. Drafting Kristaps Porzingis might be the biggest gamble of the entire draft, but maybe Phil Jackson and Derek Fisher can see something we can't. Bust in 3 years is my opinion on Porzingis. Shoutout to Derrick Williams, the once #2 draft pick by the MN T-Wolves, for landing $10 million. Proud of you D-Will.
Buzz City! At least they have cool jerseys. The Charlotte Hornets drafting Frank Kaminsky would not have been my first choice with the talent available. They did sign Nicolas Batum, and received Spencer Hawes. Batum will give them some value and Hawes will give them some flow in the hair department. Dumping Lance Stephenson was a blessing as well. They didn't really do anything wrong, but they still aren't ready for the playoffs.
The good thing about the Nets is that they are partially owned by Jay-Z. Cool. They lost their best-player Deron Williams, even if Williams is washed up now. They also lost some of their key role players such as Alan Anderson and Mirza Teletovic. Good role players are hard to come by and even harder when your team is going down the gutter. RIP the Brooklyn Nets season.
Things can't really get much worse for the bottom 2 teams. The Orlando Magic, much like the MN Timberwolves are loaded with young talent like Tabias Harris, Elfrid Payton, Aaron Gordon, Nikola Vucevic, Victor Oladipo and top draft choice Mario Hezonja. I definitely approve of Hezonja. Watching his highlights and summer league, the guy is the real deal compared to his European counterpart Porzingis. Give this team a few years and they will be in the playoffs.
Last and very least the
Philadelphia 76ers. They know they are the worst team and are so on purpose. They are loading up for the future. Acquiring many draft picks, hoping to draft a superstar in the next few drafts to get their franchise back to a winning franchise. As for this year, Joel Embiid is hurt again, getting him closer to the label ''bust'' before he even plays and one of the worst picks. I'm not sure how they are going to work Nerlens Noels and Jahlil Okafor on the court at the same time. At least this team knows their future rather than thinking they are going to be in the playoffs.
The
MVP of the 2015-2016 Season will be
Kevin Durant. He is hungry to get back to his #2 player in the world position especially after last year. I don't see why he wont be the player we know him as. As well as the MVP, he will be the scoring champ. I would love to see OKC knock off the Golden State Warriors in the playoffs and face the San Antonio Spurs for the Western Conference Finals.
PLAYOFF PREDICTION
Western Conference Playoffs
1. Golden State Warriors
2. San Antonio Spurs
3. Los Angeles Clippers
4. Oklahoma City Thunder
5. Houston Rockets
6. Memphis Grizzlies
7. New Orleans Pelicans
8. Utah Jazz
Eastern Conference Playoffs
1. Cleveland Cavaliers
2. Atlanta Hawks
3. Chicago Bulls
4. Toronto Raptors
5. Miami Heat
6. Washington Wizards
7. Milwaukee Bucks
8. Indiana Pacers
Western Conference Playoffs Round 2
Golden State Warriors vs OKC Thunder: GS wins 4-3
San Antonio Spurs vs Los Angeles Clippers: SA Wins 4-2
Eastern Conference Playoffs Round 2
Cleveland Cavaliers vs Toronto Raptors: CLE wins 4-1
Atlanta Hawks vs Chicago Bulls: CHI wins 4-3
Western Conference Finals
Golden State Warriors vs San Antonio Spurs: SA wins 4-2
Eastern Conference Finals
Cleveland Cavaliers vs Chicago Bulls: CLE wins 4-2
NBA Finals
Cleveland Cavaliers vs San Antonio Spurs: CLE wins 4-3
Cleveland Cavaliers are NBA Champions
NBA opening night is Tuesday October 27th. We start the TNT double-header with the Chicago Bulls taking on the Cleveland Cavaliers in Chicago. After that battle, we get the defending champions, Golden State Warriors, hosting the up-and-coming New Orleans Pelicans with Anthony Davis. There is also a 3rd game on NBA TV between the Atlanta Hawks and Detroit Pistons. As always, the NBA Season is exciting and must watch TV. Will there be a new champion? I think so, but we will have to watch to find out.
Check out this link to see how GMs around the league answered questions!
Follow me on twitter @jpsweets and @basketballguy61
