WESTERN CONFERENCE
The biggest signing this off-season has to be the San Antonio Spurs signing LaMarcus Aldridge. This move affected the whole NBA. The Spurs are now the favorite to win the title and respectably should be. With the old core 3 of Duncan, Parker, and Ginobili staying around for another year, add that to one of the best both way players in Kawhi Leonard, and now add a Top 5, offensively dominant, proven PF, you have yourself a top team without mentioning their bench. Now to talk about their bench, they signed another huge free agent, David West. Though he is past his prime, West is still a very good player, that can give a team a 20-10 night every once and a while, but can also lead a strong second unit when Duncan and LA head for the bench. Though past his prime as well, picking up Rasual Butler was a nice pick up that could come in handy in some situations.
I only have a few concerns for this team. One has to be age of their regulars; their core 3, Diaw, and now West. Obviously Popovich will be limiting their minutes and using them strategically, but last year we saw Parker be hampered by a hamstring injury that brought a lot of concern to their season and longevity. Another concern is how they will mesh now with LA. He's use to getting the ball almost every possession and firing up a high volume of shots in Portland, where he was the man. I'm sure David West will fit in great, especially knowing that he took a pay-cut just to be on the team. That is serious sacrifice and dedication to be on a legitimate title contender. My last concern for the Spurs is their lack of a true center. Losing Tiago Splitter will have some type of effect. As I look at their roster, they have 4 centers listed (Matt Bonner & Boris Diaw are listed as Center-Forwards). All 4 don't even have a picture nor can I pronounce their name. I'm not saying it's a big deal, especially with the league merging into a center-less league, using small, faster line-ups, but it might cut into Tim Duncan's bench time, meaning Duncan would have to play more mins due to a lack of true center with NBA experience. Just a thought. Besides those few concerns, the Spurs will most likely finish in the top 4 of the Western Conference and make a push to the NBA Finals come playoff time, where I believe they will knock Golden State off their throne and represent the West in the NBA Finals.
The Golden State Warriors had a phenomenal season last year. 67 wins is very impressive. I think they will have the best record in the NBA for the regular season, finishing with 60 or more again. Though they will be crowned with the best record, they won't be crowned the Western Conference champs. It's very hard to repeat championships, especially when your team doesn't make many moves in the off-season. The old mantra "if it ain't broke, don't fix it" comes to mind here. To me, I don't think they had to do anything because they are the champs and their team is still one of best teams in the league. Luckily for them, their young guys are only getting better, including the MVP Steph Curry and Klay Thompson. My concern though is that their competition did go fishing to try and beat them. Most noticeably the Spurs and Clippers, who re-signed and brought in veterans that can play.
Next in line are the LA Clippers. Every year since the Clippers signed Chris Paul, we knew they were going to make the playoffs, but nobody thinks they will win the title. They have arguably the best PG in the league with Chris Paul, a top 3 PF in Blake Griffin, a freakishly athletic, defensive stopper center in DeAndre Jordan, and a very well rounded supporting cast, you still get a team that will make the playoffs, but not win the title. Don't get me wrong, the Clippers are a legitimate threat to win the title this year and have the talent to do it, they just crack under pressure and can't get over the hump. I think re-signing Jordan was huge for their team. He is a very valuable player to have on the team, I wouldn't pay a max contract for him, but then again without him, the Clippers defense would be horrific. They also signed "The Truth" Paul Pierce from Washington. They nabbed Josh Smith from the Rockets for the veteran's minimum, smart move in my opinion and if it means anything they also signed Lance Stephenson for some SG/SF depth with the departure of Matt Barnes to Memphis.
In my opinion, those are the top 3 teams in the Western Conference, but the west is so stacked, 1-6 could move drastically. The 3-6 slots are the hardest to predict because we can't really know where everyone will end up until all the games are played and sometimes like we saw last year, the entire playoff seeding switched every day for the last month of the season. That being said, I think the OKC Thunder will end up in this range. With Kevin Durant back and hopefully in the mix for MVP, the Thunder will be legitimate title contenders again. As for Westbrook, WOW! That man had an incredible season, despite being injured at the start of the season and losing his best teammate. Westbrook made the most out of KD's absence by leading the league in scoring, and notching triple-doubles left and right. Now with the duo healthy, let's watch them get back to the best 1-2 duo in the league. I think they will finish 3-5 in the regular season, but I wouldn't be surprised if they were #2 and knocked Golden State out in the NBA Playoffs.
The Houston Rockets pulled off a huge comeback by defeating the Clippers in last year's playoffs, but I'm afraid they won't have near the same success as they did last post season. I think James Harden will have another MVP like season, maybe even win it, but his team lacks depth and that is what hurt them down the line. Bringing in Ty Lawson was a huge grab, though risky with his past, he can provide them with great speed and relief to Patrick Beverly. I like Sam Dekker, I think he has a small chance at being a Chandler Parsons replacement, but he will have to prove that. I won't leave Dwight Howard out because the bottom line of this team is how far James Harden and Dwight Howard can carry them. With how stacked the west is again, I don't see them getting out of the first round of the playoffs this season.
The Memphis Grizzlies did a few things right this off-season, but not enough things right. Signing Matt Barnes and Brendan Wright are great pick-ups, but not getting any shooters when your team literally is the worst 3 point shooting team in the league seems foolish. Memphis still relies on old school, pound it inside basketball. It works for them, but with the league morphing into a high volume of 3 pointers per game game-plan, Memphis will be left in the dust aka the first round of the playoffs.
Last two spots are very tricky. It's very hard to tell who will snag these two spots. I think the 6 above are locks to make the playoffs, but the order is TBD. I'm almost certain we will get to see Anthony Davis and the New Orleans Pelicans again this post season. Last season was just a preview of what this young man will be doing for the next 15 years. Davis has risen so fast and so high in the NBA ranks, people forget he is going into his 4th year and is only 22 years old. The kid is a monster and will be the next KG/Duncan combination, dominant big man that apparently has been working on his 3 point game. Watch out kids. I would like to see him get his assists up this year because right now he sits at a career 1.6 assists per game and a 1.08 AST/TO ratio...Not good. When he starts making his teams look better, than he will take the next step into greatness. As for his team, they aren't too shabby. They have a good interior and some guards that can play. Signing Cole was a good pick up as well. I expect them to make the playoffs.
The last team I am going to pick to get into the playoffs this year is the Utah Jazz. This may be a bold pick, leaving out the Phoenix Suns and Dallas Mavericks, but the Jazz have a young, talented core, led by Gordon Hayward and Trey Burke. I really like their draft pick Trey Lyles. I think he has the potential to be a Carlos Boozer, Paul Millsap type. Not coincidental that both those players also played for the Jazz, it just seems like Lyles could be a PF that can knock down the mid-range with ease and be a good rebounder for 10+ years in the league. One other kid that I like on this team is their defensive anchor, Rudy Gobert. Though he got hammered on by MN's Andrew Wiggins, Gobert is not afraid to challenge anyone at the rim. With him in the middle they can go above .500 and round out the NBA Playoffs for the 8th seed.
The first team left at home watching the playoffs will be the Phoenix Suns. Yes, they are on the come up with Eric Bledsoe and Brandon Knight, but splitting up the Morris twins was a mistake in my book. I might be a little biased due to my love for the Jayhawks, but I think these two together bring more good than bad to a team. I expect another year of being in the hunt for the 8th spot, but just not making the cut.
The Dallas Mavericks are in a worst state of mind than a 16 year old girl going through her first break-up. Losing DeAndre Jordan after getting him, had to be soul crushing. With him they would have maybe signed some other players to make a run at a championship, but now without him, they won't even make the playoffs. My favorite player before LeBron, Dirk Nowitzki is a legend and always will be, but his time has come to retire. He would still work people in pro-ams, but he is such a liability on defense that his offensive production does not cut it anymore. Not only that, they lost Tyson Chandler, Monta Ellis, and Rajon Rondo. They lost 3 starters and missed out on the DJ. Not a good off-season for the shark Mr. Mark Cuban. To give them a little help, they signed Wes Matthews, who will be coming off an injury and they signed Deron Williams. Deron Williams is not the Deron Williams of his Utah Jazz days, let's just make that clear.
The next 4 teams are nowhere close to making the playoffs, but have good, young talent, that could be in the playoffs in a few seasons. The Trail Blazers, much like the Mavericks, lost just about their whole starting line-up. Lillard will be their only legitimate star. He will be very frustrated after 2 season of success and now heading backwards. The bright side for them is that they can only go up because you can't get much lower.
Sacramento is an interesting case. They have an MVP like center in Boogie Cousins, a once Top 5 PG with Rajon Rondo, who they got from the Mavs, and Rudy Gay, who is a proven scorer, but usually doesn't help a team win. Last year they started off hot as a fire and then fell off the wagon as a team and organization. I can't see playoffs this year, but I can see some personnel changes. I guess we will have to see if Willie Cauley-Stein pans out and makes the Kings' Kentucky front court a force on both sides of the court.
The next two teams have the top 2 draft picks. The MN Timberwolves drafted Karl-Anthony Towns and the Lakers took D'Angelo Russel. Both the right picks in my opinion. I personally met KAT this fall and I was impressed with how intelligent and smooth he was. Now that is nothing to do with his basketball abilities, but I think his intelligence sticks out on the court. D'Angelo on the other hand is a flashy player that can bring star power. I think both will be stars in years to come, but I think KAT will be the Rookie of the Year.
For the Timberwolves, they did exactly what they needed to do in drafting Towns. He will be the next Anthony Davis. The kid will be a monster in 3 years. Alongside Andrew Wiggins, the reigning Rookie of the year, the Puppies will have a dynamic duo for the next 10+ years, barring they stick together. If Ricky Rubio can stay healthy for once and KG can mold KAT into a defensive monster that Garnett had been for his whole career, I think Towns can be the new KG of Minnesota and the Wolves can make the playoffs within 2 years. They aren't near the playoffs this year, but they are taking the right steps and progression to getting there. They still need a full-time coach as well. RIP Flip Saunders. He was the face of the MN Timberwolves. The entire basketball community will miss you.
The BLACK MAMBA is BACK. The NBA is a better place when Kobe can play. I have always admired and respected Kobe and I will always keep him behind Jordan, but Kobe is the closest thing to Jordan for our generation. I think LeBron is more talented than Kobe, but Kobe will stay in front of LeBron in terms of greatness as long as he has more rings the LBJ. I don't think Kobe will retire this season, but I think he should. The Lakers are clearly moving in another direction, but Kobe is hampering the process. He has earned the right to stay on as long as he wants, but with the Lakers in the position they are in, need to part ways and move on to making D'Angelo Russel their star. The Lakers missed out huge again in free agency, which is no surprise because nobody wants to play on a bad team.
Lastly, the Denver Nuggets. I like their pick Mudiay because I think he will fit right in after the departure of Ty Lawson. Being on a bad team with little to no face of the franchise, Mudiay can become the face and star if he pans out. He will have the help of veteran PG Jameer Nelson to show him the ropes and Danilo Gallinari to pass to for 3's, but this team is just a team that would be great at open gym, but horrible when structure is needed. Mike Malone is a good hire, but the Nuggets are in for a long season.
PLAYOFF PREDICTION
Western Conference Playoffs
1. Golden State Warriors
2. San Antonio Spurs
3. Los Angeles Clippers
4. Oklahoma City Thunder
5. Houston Rockets
6. Memphis Grizzlies
7. New Orleans Pelicans
8. Utah Jazz
1. Cleveland Cavaliers
2. Atlanta Hawks
3. Chicago Bulls
4. Toronto Raptors
5. Miami Heat
6. Washington Wizards
7. Milwaukee Bucks
8. Indiana Pacers
Western Conference Playoffs Round 2
Golden State Warriors vs OKC Thunder: GS wins 4-3
San Antonio Spurs vs Los Angeles Clippers: SA Wins 4-2
Eastern Conference Playoffs Round 2
Cleveland Cavaliers vs Toronto Raptors: CLE wins 4-1
Atlanta Hawks vs Chicago Bulls: CHI wins 4-3
Western Conference Finals
Golden State Warriors vs San Antonio Spurs: SA wins 4-2
Eastern Conference Finals
Cleveland Cavaliers vs Chicago Bulls: CLE wins 4-2
NBA Finals
Cleveland Cavaliers vs San Antonio Spurs: CLE wins 4-3
Cleveland Cavaliers are NBA Champions
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